We’ve got a full slate of games on the horizon tonight. I’m on some of the earlier action with today’s slate. Which betting picks will you be tailing?
Picks Summary
• Yankees -1.5 (-101)
• Astros vs. Pirates Under 8 (+100)
• Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Under 7.5 (-111)
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians
Tuesday, April 11, 2023 – 06:10 PM EDT at Progressive Field
Can Gerrit Cole Add a Third Win?
The Yankees are currently 6-4 on the season after a loss to the Guardians last night. To get back on track, they’ll pitch Gerrit Cole tonight, who has a 2-0 record with a .73 ERA. Cole has been tremendous and looks like a Cy Young candidate early.
Dating back to last year, Cole has an xFIP of 3.22 with 32.7% of strikeouts. He’s done well limiting walks and has kept line drives under 18%. He gave up a lot of power last year. Lefties are hitting an ISO of .189, and righties are hitting an ISO of .163 between this year and last.
The Guardians rarely strike out against righties, but it might be challenging to hit Cole, who already has 19 strikeouts in two games. Realistically, Cole won’t have to worry about a ton of power in this Cleveland lineup. The only batters to worry about are Jose Ramirez and Josh Naylor, who both have ISO numbers at .240 or above against righties dating back to last season.
Meanwhile, Hunter Gaddis will take the hill for the third time this season with the Guardians. He’s 0-0 with a 3.72 ERA on the season. Gaddis has eight strikeouts and looked much better in his second start than his first. Still, he’s got to improve in a lot of areas.
• He still has a 7.61 xFIP dating back to last year.
• He’s struck out just 16.5% of batters.
• He’s only earned 22% of ground balls.
• Lefties have a .480 ISO in 29 plate appearances.
• Righties shave a .340 ISO in 50 plate appearances.
New York has plenty of power against righties from Aaron Judge, Anthony Rizzo, and Giancarlo Stanton. Those three should do damage against Gaddis tonight.
Let’s back the Yankees -1.5 at -101 MLB odds.
MLB Pick: Yankees -1.5 (-101) at SBK
Houston Astros vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Tuesday, April 11, 2023 – 06:35 PM EDT at PNC Park
Will Pittsburgh Stay Over .500?
The Pirates will send out their ace for tonight’s game. Mitch Keller has a .386 ERA through two starts this season. He’s struck out 15 in those two starts. But dating back to last year, he’s got a 4.40 xFIP with 20.8% of strikeouts. He’s also walked 9% of batters.
In the past, Keller has struggled more against lefties, giving up a .327 wOBA to his last 357 lefties. The Astros have just two lefties in the lineup, but those lefties are powerful.
Since last season, Yordan Alvarez and Kyle Tucker have hit a high ISO and wOBA against righties. Alex Bregman, a righty, also has good numbers against righties. But this isn’t a terrible matchup for Keller, who will face a weak bottom portion of the Astros order.
Meanwhile, Christian Javier will start for the Astros. He’s got a high strikeout rate of 32.7% and an xFIP of 4.03, dating back to last season. Walks can get high, and his ground ball rate is low, but he’s facing a Pirates lineup that has struck out over 25% of the time against righties using this year’s and last year’s stats.
Javier and Keller should be able to get high strikeouts and limit damage. I’ll take the Under in this matchup.
MLB Pick: Under 8 (+100) at WynnBet
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Tuesday, April 11, 2023 – 06:40 PM EDT at Tropicana Field
Can Tampa Bay Earn 11th Straight?
The Tampa Bay Rays have earned 10 straight wins. They’re busy breaking records every single game now. Shane McClanahan will get the start for the Rays. He’s 2-0 with a 1.50 ERA. He’s also struck out 12 batters through those first two games.
Using last year’s stats with this year’s stats, McClanahan has a 3.11 xFIP with nearly 30% of strikeouts. He’s also walked just 6% of batters and has limited extra-base hits while earning nearly 50% of ground balls.
The Red Sox’s projected lineup has a .135 ISO and wOBA of .328 against lefties. Only Enrique Hernandez and Rob Refsnyder have been consistently hitting for power against lefties since last season.
Meanwhile, Garrett Whitlock will make his first appearance this season. He’s got a career 2.73 ERA with over 150 innings pitched, but he only started nine games in his career. Still, he had a 3.72 xFIP with over 26% of strikeouts and under 5% of walks last season. He will allow extra-base hits here and there but, overall, has good enough stuff to keep Boston off-balanced.
We had just one run scored in yesterday’s game. That trend will likely continue in this one. Take the Under.
MLB Pick: Under 7.5 (-111) at SBK
