Picks Summary
• Mariners vs. Athletics: Mariners -1.5 (-155) at Caesars Sportsbook
• Braves vs. Marlins: Over 8.5 (-110) at BetMGM
• Blue Jays vs. Red Sox: Red Sox ML (+150) at Bet365
We’ve got plenty of MLB action throughout the day, but we are looking at some later games on the slate. Here are the three best MLB picks to consider for tonight.
Seattle Mariners vs. Oakland Athletics
Thursday, May 04, 2023 – 03:37 PM EDT at Oakland Coliseum
Teams Analysis
Seattle Mariners
Drew Rucinski will take the hill for the Athletics tonight. He’s 0-1 with a 4.76 ERA after coming back into the MLB from the KBO.
He’s holding a 4.93 xFIP and has struck out just 3.6% of batters faced. Still, he’s been able to earn 50% of ground balls. He’ll likely struggle with lefties more than righties this season.
The Mariners have hit a .160 ISO and wOBA of .313 against righties using their projected lineup. The team has struck out at a high rate, but that likely won’t be an issue against Rucinski.
Oakland Athletics
Meanwhile, the Athletics will have to face George Kirby. Kirby has a 2-2 record but a 2.93 ERA. He’s also holding a 3.96 xFIP over the last 30 days and has walked just 1.7% of batters.
Kirby’s strikeout numbers haven’t been high, but he’s limited extra-base hits and continues to go deep in games.
He’ll face an Oakland lineup with a .201 ISO and .337 wOBA against righties this season. The Athletics have had more pop than the Mariners over the last 30 days, which is shocking. But still, Kirby could be trusted way more than Rucinski heading into this game.
The Pick
I’ll stick with the Mariners -1.5 at -155.
MLB Pick: Mariners -1.5 (-155) at Caesars Sportsbook
Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins
Thursday, May 04, 2023 – 04:10 PM EDT at loanDepot park
Teams Analysis
Atlanta Braves
The Braves will have to face Jesus Luzardo. Luzardo is a left-hander with a 3.48 ERA on the season. He’s also holding an xFIP of 3.96 with 27.7% of strikeouts over the last 30 days.
The lefty also has limited walks but is allowing plenty of extra-base hits. Lefties have hit a .250 ISO over their last 20 plate appearances against Luzardo. Meanwhile, righties have smacked a .198 ISO against Luzardo over their last 99 plate appearances.
The Braves have three consistent power bats in the lineup: Austin Riley, Sean Murphy, and Ozzie Albies. They’ve all hit an ISO of at least .333 against lefties over the last 30 days.
Miami Marlins
Then there’s Dylan Dodd for the Braves. He’s a youngster getting the call-up from the minors today. Over the last 30 days, he’s still holding a 3.63 xFIP but has struck out just 14.3% of batters.
Dodd has kept walks down but watched eight lefties hit a .625 ISO against him over the last month in the MLB.
Dodd, like Luzardo, is a lefty and will face only one lefty in the lineup. He’s been better against righties but has still struggled to limit extra bases.
Dodd will have to face three consistent power hitters in the Miami lineup, including Jon Berti, Jorge Soler, and Garrett Hampson, who all have a high ISO against lefties. Berti and Hampson aren’t premier power hitters, but they’re hitting extra-base hits against lefties over the last month.
The Pick
I’ll ride the Over 8.5 in this one.
MLB Pick: Over 8.5 (-110) at BetMGM
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox
Thursday, May 04, 2023 – 06:10 PM EDT at Fenway Park
Teams Analysis
Toronto Blue Jays
It’ll be Brayan Bello on the mound for the Red Sox tonight. Bello has a 6.57 ERA but an xFIP of 4.00 over the last 30 days.
Bello’s going to get high strikeouts. He’ll also earn high-ground balls and limit line drives. But walks can get high and extra-base hits to righties will also get high.
He’s got great stuff, and once he can limit the extra damage, he’ll be a solid pitcher in the league for years to come.
The Blue Jays only hit a .172 ISO and wOBA of .296 against righties over the last 30 days. They’ve also struck out 25.5% of the time using the projected lineup. Bello should be able to put together a quality outing.
Boston Red Sox
Meanwhile, Kevin Gausman will take the hill for the Blue Jays. He’s always throwing together quality outings. He has a 2.33 ERA on the season and a 2.66 xFIP over the last 30 days.
Gausman has struck out 37% of batters and has walked under 4%. He will give up an extra-base hit here and there, but ultimately, he has the stuff to get out of the jams.
The Red Sox have hit a .208 ISO and wOBA of .350 against righties this season. They’ve got a bunch of lefties hitting at a high rate against righties in the lineup. Don’t be surprised if the Red Sox win at home.
The Pick
As long as Bello stays out of massive trouble, he should be able to keep the Red Sox in the game. Plus, Boston’s lineup still looks better against righties heading into this game.
MLB Pick: Red Sox ML (+150) at Bet365
