MLB Pick: Cubs -1.5 (-120) at BetMGM
• Guardians vs. Yankees: Under 7.5 (-105)
• Cubs vs. Nationals: Cubs -1.5 (-120)
• Mariners vs. Athletics: Under 7.5 (+102)
We’ve got plenty of MLB action throughout the day. Although there are games throughout the day, I’m looking at some later games on the slate. Here are three MLB picks to consider for tonight.
Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees
Wednesday, May 03, 2023 – 07:05 PM EDT at Yankee Stadium
Clarke Schmidt will take the mound for the Yankees tonight. He’s holding a 4.18 xFIP with 26.2% of strikeouts over the last 30 days. Schmidt has limited walks but rarely gets a high rate of ground balls. He’s also allowing over 22% of line drives and giving up close to 45% of hard contact over the last 30 days.
Lefties have hit a .486 wOBA and ISO of .349 against Schmidt in their last 47 plate appearances. Meanwhile, righties haven’t hit nearly as well but still have a .216 ISO against him over the last 30 days. The Guardians haven’t hit lights out this year. But over the last 30 days, the projected lineup has struck out just 19.6% of the time. They’ve also walked over 10% and have Jose Ramirez tearing it up.
Ramirez is still the only batter with a wOBA of .330 or higher. He’s sitting at a .441 number against righties.
New York Yankees
On the other hand, the Yankees will face Shane Bieber. Bieber has only struck out 17.8% of batters and has walked 8.5% over the last 30 days, but his BABIP is down to .261 over the last 30 days, and he’s earning close to 49% of ground balls.
Righties have had a little more success, but the Yankees as a lineup have hit a .124 ISO and wOBA of .271 against righties. They’ve got Anthony Rizzo and DJ LeMahieu putting up good numbers against righties, but that’s about it. Let’s take the Under here.
MLB Pick: Under 7.5 (-105) at Caesars Sportsbook
Chicago Cubs vs. Washington Nationals
Wednesday, May 03, 2023 – 07:05 PM EDT at Nationals Park
The Cubs are only -200 with Marcus Stroman on the mound tonight. The offense will face Jake Irvin, who has a 3.80 career ERA in the minors. In Triple-A, Irvin has a 5.65 ERA this season in five games started. In 22.1 innings, he’s allowed 23 hits and 14 runs, with three home runs and 11 walks. His WHIP is even at 1.52 this year.
The Cubs are hitting a .348 wOBA against righties over the last 30 days and have struck out under 21% of the time. Chicago should be in business offensively tonight.
On the other hand, don’t expect much out of Washington. The Nationals have hit a .093 ISO and wOBA of .283 against righties over the last 30 days. Washington has also hit nearly 50% of ground balls with the projected lineup against righties in that time frame.
Stroman has induced over 57% of ground balls and keeps extra-base hits down on both sides of the plate.
Stroman should cruise and help the Cubs earn a multiple-run win.
MLB Pick: Cubs -1.5 (-120) at BetMGM
Seattle Mariners vs. Oakland Athletics
Wednesday, May 03, 2023 – 09:40 PM EDT at Oakland Coliseum
The Mariners will take on a lefty in JP Sears tonight. Sears has had a 5.50 xFIP over the last 30 days. However, he’s struck out nearly 25% of batters while allowing only 5.5% of walks. The left-handed has limited line drives but still gives up a boatload of fly balls.
He’ll face a Mariners lineup with a .179 ISO and wOBA of .283 against lefties. The Mariners have struck out 28.5% of the time against lefties using their projected lineup over the last 30 days.
The Oakland bats haven’t been any better. The Athletics have hit a .159 ISO and wOBA of .310 against righties this season. They’ll face Logan Gilbert, one of the best up-and-coming righties in the league. Gilbert has a 3.28 xFIP with 30% strikeouts and 4.4% walks. He’s also limited line drives but has allowed a .344 wOBA and ISO of .211 to his last 40 righties.
Still, the A’s have a bunch of rally-killers in the lineup and five batters striking out 23.9% of the time or more.
We watched two pitchers throw no-hitters through five innings last night. Don’t rely on these offenses. Take the Under.
MLB Pick: Under 7.5 (+102) at SBK