Picks Summary
• Twins vs. White Sox: Twins ML (-165) at Bet365
• Diamondbacks vs. Rangers: Under 8 (-120) at BetMGM
• Phillies vs. Dodgers: Phillies ML (+140) at BetMGM
All 30 teams are taking the field tonight. We have three MLB picks to make us money for tonight’s slate. Are you tailing?
Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago White Sox
Tuesday, May 02, 2023 – 07:10 PM EDT at Guaranteed Rate Field
Teams Analysis
Minnesota Twins
The Minnesota Twins will look to continue their successful season with a series against the Chicago White Sox.
They’ll face Michael Kopech of the White Sox, with a 7.01 ERA on the year. Kopech is still holding an xFIP of 5.59 over the last 30 days. He’s been better than his ERA but hasn’t been consistent on the mound.
Kopech has struck out close to 23% of batters in those last 30 days but has also walked 13.4%. He’s not earning a high rate of grounders and has allowed close to 60% of hard contact. Lefties and righties have a high ISO against Kopech, and the Twins have hit an ISO of .209 as a lineup against righties in the last month.
Chicago White Sox
On the other hand, the White Sox will take on Joe Ryan, who is 5-0 with a 2.81 ERA. Ryan has a 3.65 xFIP over the last 30 days and has struck out nearly 29% of batters while holding walks to 3.3%.
Ryan has limited extra-base hits from both sides of the plate and will face a White Sox lineup that has hit righties with a .133 ISO and wOBA of .285. The White Sox have also struck out over 23% of the time against righties while only earning 6.3% of walks.
The Pick
We’ll back the Twins on the road at -165.
MLB Pick: Twins ML (-165) at Bet365
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Texas Rangers
Tuesday, May 02, 2023 – 08:05 PM EDT at Globe Life Field
Teams Analysis
Arizona Diamondbacks
The Diamondbacks will face Jon Gray of the Rangers tonight. Gray has a 1-1 record with a 3.91 ERA. However, his xFIP has been at 5.79 over the last 30 days.
Gray isn’t earning a high rate of strikeouts and has recently been walking 12.3% of batters, but he’s only really struggling against lefties.
He’ll still have to face six lefties in the Arizona lineup, but the Diamondbacks have hit a .175 ISO and wOBA of .337 with only 7.7% of walks against righties over the last 30 days.
Texas Rangers
Meanwhile, the Rangers will take on Zac Gallen, who is currently 4-1 with a 2.15 ERA. Gallen has been sensational over the last 30 days, with a 2.05 xFIP. He’s struck out 26.2% of batters and has walked 1.7%.
The Rangers have combined to hit a .183 ISO and wOBA of .332 against righties but going up against Gallen will make things more difficult. Especially with the Rangers rarely earning walks, just like the Diamondbacks.
The Pick
Let’s take the Under 8 between these two quality pitchers.
MLB Pick: Under 8 (-120) at BetMGM
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Tuesday, May 02, 2023 – 10:10 PM EDT at Dodger Stadium
Teams Analysis
Philadelphia Phillies
The Phillies will get Bryce Harper back in the lineup tonight. We don’t expect him to be a huge contributor tonight, but having him back in the lineup should help the other bats.
The Phillies will face Julio Urias of the Dodgers. He’s a lefty with a 4.41 ERA on the season. He’s also holding an xFIP of 4.42. Lefties and righties have hit for a high ISO against Urias. Now Urias must face a Phillies lineup already hitting a .209 ISO without Harper against lefties.
Look for Nick Castellanos, Kyle Schwarber, Brandon Marsh, and Edmundo Sosa to earn some hits and potentially get extra-base hits against Urias.
Los Angeles Dodgers
The Phillies will send out Matt Strahm, who is also a lefty. He’s pitched better than Urias if we’re being honest.
Strahm has a 2-2 record with a 2.31 ERA. He’s also got a 3.50 xFIP over the last 30 days and has struck out 36% of batters in that time frame.
The Dodgers have struck out 25% of the time over the last 30 days against lefties using their projected lineup. Los Angeles has also hit a .276 wOBA against lefties, which isn’t very good.
Add on the fact that the Dodgers have hit just 10.6% of line drives against lefties and 46.2% of ground balls over the last 30 days against lefties, the Phillies can do some damage tonight.
The Pick
We’ll back the Phillies after laying a -178 price on the Dodgers last night.
MLB Pick: Phillies ML (+140) at BetMGM
