• Diamondbacks vs. Athletics: Diamondbacks ML (-154) at BetMGM
• Royals vs. Padres: Under 8.5 (-115) at Bet365
• Phillies vs. Giants: Under 7.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
There’s so much good pitching on the MLB slate tonight. We’ll take advantage of that with tonight’s top three MLB picks.
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Oakland Athletics
Tuesday, May 16, 2023 – 09:40 PM EDT at Oakland Coliseum
It’ll be Kyle Muller on the mound for the Athletics tonight. Muller has had a 6.65 xFIP over the last month. He’s also struck out under 14% of batters while walking 11.9%.
Muller has watched lefties hit a .472 wOBA and ISO of .211 over his last 21 lefties faced. He’s also watching righties hit a .432 wOBA and ISO of .225 over his last 97 righties faced.
Meanwhile, Arizona has hit a .178 ISO and wOBA of .340 against lefties in the last 30 days. The Diamondbacks have also smacked nearly 21% of line drives against lefties using their projected lineup and have struck out 20% of the time, which isn’t all that bad.
On the other hand, Tommy Henry will get the call. He’s got a higher xFIP of 6.35, but because he’s allowed under 19% of line drives, he’s been able to get out of damage regularly.
Henry has limited extra-base hits against lefties and righties and will face an Oakland lineup with a .168 ISO and wOBA of .322. They don’t compare to what Arizona is putting out on the field.
The Athletics have earned just 5.4% of walks against lefties over the last month. If they’re not patient, they’ll hit poor contact against Henry tonight.
Let’s ride the Diamondbacks at -154. The Athletics haven’t even earned 10 wins yet.
MLB Pick: Diamondbacks ML (-154) at BetMGM
Kansas City Royals vs. San Diego Padres
Tuesday, May 16, 2023 – 09:40 PM EDT at Petco Park
Kansas City Royals
The Kansas City Royals will face Seth Lugo for the first time this season. Lugo has a 4.22 xFIP over the last 30 days, but his strikeouts are down. However, his walks are also down, and he’s got just a 3.18 ERA on the season.
Lugo has been ok against righties. He’s just struggled with lefties. But the lefties in the Royals lineup only hit a .143 ISO and wOBA of .306. Lugo can get through this lineup without significant trouble.
San Diego Padres
On the other hand, Brady Singer will get the call for the Royals. He’s got a 7.71 ERA on the season. But he hasn’t been that bad.
Singer has an xFIP of 5.62 and a BABIP of .347. Both of those rates will start to drop. He’s held righties to a .283 wOBA and ISO of .130 over the last 30 days, which is good.
Lefties are doing the damage, hitting a .439 wOBA and ISO of .286 against Singer.
However, San Diego has hit a .137 ISO and wOBA of .282 against righties over the last month using their projected lineup. Only Juan Soto and Matt Carpenter are major threats against Singer.
We like Singer to find himself again tonight. Let’s ride the Under.
MLB Pick: Under 8.5 (-115) at Bet365
Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Francisco Giants
Tuesday, May 16, 2023 – 09:45 PM EDT at Oracle Park
It’ll be Alex Cobb on the mound for the Giants tonight. Cobb has had a 3.35 xFIP over the last month. He’s also earned nearly 66% of ground balls and allowed 15.2% of line drives to go along with 19.2% of fly balls.
Putting the ball in the air against Cobb is extremely difficult. Earning extra-base hits against Cobb is just as tricky too. Lefties and righties have hit very low extra-base hits against Cobb this season.
The Phillies have hit a .151 ISO and wOBA of .344 with their projected lineup over the last month. Bryce Harper has done much damage, but the rest of the lineup has been iffy. JT Realmuto has had some success, but guys like Kyle Schwarber and Trea Turner haven’t produced at a high level against righties.
San Francisco Giants
Meanwhile, Zack Wheeler will man the mound for the Phillies. He’s holding a 3.30 xFIP over the last 30 days with 28.1% of strikeouts and 4.1% of walks.
Wheeler is giving up a lot of line drives. But he’s still kept extra-base hits down like Cobb. Plus, the Giants have only hit 19.4% of line drives with their projected lineup over the last 30 days against righties.
The Giants have hit a .296 wOBA as a unit against righties over the last month. They’ve also struck out 25.8% of the time and have earned just 7.1% of walks.
We’ll take the Under between Wheeler and Cobb.
MLB Pick: Under 7.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook