TheRX’s Top 3 MLB Picks to Bet on May 11: Domingo German Means Trouble for Rays

Domingo German New York Yankees Philadelphia Phillies
Domingo German #0 of the New York Yankees pitches against the Philadelphia Phillies. Sarah Stier/Getty Images/AFP.

Picks Summary

Rays vs. Yankees: Yankees ML (+103) at Unibet

Rangers vs. Athletics: Rangers -1.5 (-137) at SugarHouse

Giants vs. Diamondbacks: Diamondbacks ML (+122) at Caesars Sportsbook

It’s a quiet day of baseball, but we’ve still got three games in the night that we’ll review for your MLB picks.

Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees

Thursday, May 11, 2023 – 07:05 PM EDT at Yankee Stadium

Teams Analysis

Tampa Bay Rays

The Tampa Bay Rays will face Domingo German in tonight’s matchup.

German is 2-2 with a 4.35 ERA. However, his xFIP over the last 30 days is a bit higher at 4.70. Still, he’s earning high strikeouts and giving up low walks. He’s just not inducing high-ground balls.

The right-hander has also given up more extra-base hits than he would like. But he’ll face a Rays lineup with only a .163 ISO and wOBA of .311 against righties over the last 30 days.

Tampa Bay’s a great team winning 29 of their first 40 games, but the offense against righties isn’t all that special.

New York Yankees

On the other hand, Drew Rasmussen will take the hill for the Rays. He’s got a 3.11 ERA but a 4.29 xFIP over the last 30 days. The righty has walked close to 10% of batters and has allowed nearly 23% of line drives. He’s also given up a BABIP of .403, which will slide down in his next few games.

But New York still has a more impressive lineup, hitting a .222 ISO and wOBA of /327 with their projected group against righties.

The Pick

Let’s take the Yankees’ moneyline.

MLB Pick: Yankees ML (+103) at Unibet

Texas Rangers vs. Oakland Athletics

Thursday, May 11, 2023 – 9:40 PM ET at Oakland Coliseum

Teams Analysis

Texas Rangers

The Athletics haven’t named a starter for this game. But whoever pitches is probably going to get rocked.

Texas has hit a .199 ISO and wOBA of .341 against righties over the last 30 days. They’ve hit 35.6% of ground balls and smacked 22% of line drives. Strikeouts are a bit high, but depending on the pitcher, the Rangers could limit strikeouts too.

Oakland Athletics

Meanwhile, Nathan Eovaldi will take the hill for the Rangers. Eovaldi has a 3.17 xFIP with nearly 24% of strikeouts and just 3% of walks over the last month. The righty is getting many grounders and limiting extra-base hits very well.

However, the Athletics have been an outstanding offense throughout the last 30 days against righties. They’re hitting a .224 ISO and wOBA of .354, yet, analysts like ourselves give them flack. But are these numbers sustainable against some of the best pitchers in baseball? Probably not.

The Pick

Give us the Rangers -1.5.

MLB Pick: Rangers -1.5 (-137) at SugarHouse

San Francisco Giants vs. Arizona Diamondbacks

Thursday, May 11, 2023 – 09:40 PM EDT at Chase Field

Teams Analysis

San Francisco Giants

Tommy Henry hasn’t had the best of starts to his 2023 campaign. He’s holding a 6.49 xFIP over the last 30 days with as many walks as strikeouts.

However, the Giants’ lineup is hitting a .109 ISO and wOBA of .289 against lefties over the last 30 days. Only Wilmer Flores has produced for the Giants in that time span, hitting a .389 ISO and wOBA of .481. If he weren’t in the lineup, the Giants would look dreadful.

Arizona Diamondbacks

On the other hand, Alex Cobb will get the call for the Giants. The righty has a 2.01 ERA on the year. He’s also got an xFIP of 3.27 over the last 30 days.

He’s crushing it. His strikeout numbers could be higher, and his BABIP is already high at .352. But he’s earned over 65% of ground balls and has limited walks and line drives throughout the season.

Still, the Diamondbacks have hit a .378 wOBA against righties over the last month. Only Josh Rojas and Gabriel Moreno have struggled in this lineup against righties. Arizona has a much better lineup. They’ve struck out just 16.3% of the time and have walked 10.5% of the time.

The Pick

Even with Cobb on the mound, Arizona’s lineup has so much more potential than the Giants. We like Henry to succeed on the mound tonight and lead the Diamondbacks to a victory.

MLB Pick: Diamondbacks ML (+122) at Caesars Sportsbook