TheRX’s Top 3 MLB Picks to Bet on May 1: Blake Snell on Bounce-Back Spot

Blake Snell San Diego Padres Atlanta Braves
Blake Snell #4 of the San Diego Padres pitches against the Atlanta Braves. Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images/AFP.

Picks Summary

  • Cubs vs. Nationals: Nationals ML (+115) at Caesars Sportsbook
  • Reds vs. Padres: Padres -1.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
  • Phillies vs. Dodgers: Dodgers ML (-164) at BetMGM

It’s a small slate in the MLB, but we’ve got plenty of value and opportunities to make some money. Here are three MLB picks to consider for tonight’s slate.

Chicago Cubs vs. Washington Nationals

Monday, May 01, 2023 – 07:05 PM EDT at Nationals Park

Teams Analysis

Chicago Cubs

The Chicago Cubs have a winning record going into May. That’s impressive enough, but we think they’ll be falling to .500 after tonight.

The Cubs will face left-handed pitcher MacKenzie Gore. Gore has a 3-1 record with a 3.00 ERA. He’s a young left-hander with a ton of good stuff.

Gore has an xFIP of 3.42 with 31.5% of strikeouts this season. His walks can get high, but he’s still earning over 50% of ground balls. That’ll help him get out of trouble. He’s facing a Cubs lineup that has a .196 ISO against lefties, but the top of the order has not done much in terms of extra-base hits against lefties.

The Cubs will also have just one lefty in the lineup against Gore, and Gore has held righties to a .201 wOBA and ISO of .025.

Washington Nationals

The Nationals only have ten wins this year, but Gore has three of them. The Nationals will face Drew Smyly of the Cubs.

Smyly has a 3.21 ERA but a 4.57 xFIP this year. He’s not getting a ton of grounders and allowing a .269 ISO to lefties. Like the Cubs, the Nationals won’t have too many lefties, but Smyly won’t earn as many strikeouts, and the Nationals will put the ball in play more.

The Pick

Take the Nationals at home.

MLB Pick: Nationals ML (+115) at Caesars Sportsbook

Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres

Monday, May 01, 2023 – 09:40 PM EDT at Petco Park

Teams Analysis

Cincinnati Reds

The Reds will take on Blake Snell and the Padres tonight. Once an ace pitcher, Snell has an 0-4 record with a 5.48 ERA.

But Snell has still struck out nearly 24% of batters and will face a Reds team with a .110 ISO against lefties this season.

The Reds only have Kevin Newman hitting at a high rate against lefties this season. If he can keep his walks down, Snell should be able to get through the Reds’ lineup without many hiccups.

San Diego Padres

On the flip side, the Padres will face Luke Weaver, who currently has a 7.71 ERA. Weaver has induced only 36.7% of ground balls and is giving up 46.7% of hard contact with 53.3% of fly balls.

The Padres have hit a .192 ISO against righties and are led by five hitters hitting an ISO above .200 against righties. That includes Fernando Tatis, Manny Machado, Juan Soto, Xander Bogaerts, and Matt Carpenter.

Lefties are hitting a .369 wOBA and ISO of .417 against Weaver, while righties are hitting a .430 wOBA and ISO of .364. The Padres should slug against Weaver in San Diego.

The Pick

I’ll roll with the Padres -1.5.

MLB Pick: Padres -1.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers

Monday, May 01, 2023 – 10:10 PM EDT at Dodger Stadium

Teams Analysis

Philadelphia Phillies

The Phillies will get a crack at Tony Gonsolin tonight. Gonsolin will make his second start of the season for the Dodgers. In his first start, he went 3.1 innings and struck out one batter. He didn’t allow a run against the Pirates on April 26 but allowed two hits and gave up three walks.

His xFIP was 5.91, and he struck out only 7.1% of batters in that start. He will have to face a Phillies lineup with a .334 wOBA against righties this season.

Only Brandon Marsh has had a lot of success against righties when it comes to power. Therefore, Gonsolin can get comfortable on the mound in his second start.

Los Angeles Dodgers

On the other hand, Taijuan Walker will pitch for the Phillies. He’s got a 4.97 ERA on the season but an xFIP of 4.30. His strikeout numbers aren’t very high, and he’s walked 13% of batters. But he’s kept ground balls high, and line drives low.

It’s just that righties have hit a .337 wOBA and ISO of .213 against Walker this season. The righties in the Dodgers lineup have hit a .207 ISO against righties. Those righties include Mookie Betts and Will Smith.

As a lineup, the Dodgers are hitting a .235 ISO and wOBA of .349 against righties while walking 12.8% of the time.

The Pick

I’m all over the Dodgers tonight.

MLB Pick: Dodgers ML (-164) at BetMGM