Picks Summary
• Braves vs. Padres: Braves ML (-114) at SBK
• Orioles vs. Nationals: Orioles ML (-132) at BetMGM
• Blue Jays vs. Astros: Blue Jays ML (-106) at Unibet
The slate is packed with games throughout the day. We looked at some of the later ones and here’s where we are going with today’s MLB picks.
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres
Wednesday, April 19, 2023 – 04:10 PM EDT at Petco Park
Teams Analysis
San Diego Padres
The Atlanta Braves will face Nick Martinez in today’s matchup. Martinez has a 5.51 xFIP with 14.1% of strikeouts for the Padres this year. He’s also holding a 5.60 ERA on the season.
Martinez has done some good things. He’s earned 56.1% of ground balls and allowed 17.5% of line drives. Still, lefties are hitting an ISO of .222 against him to begin the year.
The Braves have just four lefties in the lineup against Martinez tonight, but those lefties have a .263 ISO and wOBA of .355 against righties to begin the year. That includes Matt Olson, who has hit a .455 ISO and wOBA of .495 against righties.
Atlanta Braves
Meanwhile, it’ll be Charlie Morton on the hill for the Braves. He’s got a 3.86 ERA, but his xFIP is at 5.58. Morton has low strikeouts and high walks at nearly 9%.
Like Martinez, he’s earned high-ground balls and limited line drives, but his wOBA to both sides of the plate has been a bit high.
The Padres haven’t been as good offensively, hitting a .158 ISO and wOBA of .313 against righties this season using the projected lineup. The Padres could work out some walks, but the team has also struck out over 25% of the time.
The Pick
Look at the Braves to earn the win. They’re 14-4, and nobody is really talking about them.
MLB Pick: Braves ML (-114) at SBK
Baltimore Orioles vs. Washington Nationals
Wednesday, April 19, 2023 – 07:05 PM EDT at Nationals Park
Teams Analysis
Washington Nationals
MacKenzie Gore will take the hill for the Nationals. He’s a highly regarded pitcher for the Nationals, and he hasn’t disappointed this season.
Gore has a 3.00 ERA with a 2-0 record for a team with just five wins this season. Gore has an xFIP of 4.00 and has struck out 28.6% of batters. He needs to minimize walks but has earned over 51% of ground balls this season.
The lefty has struggled against other lefties, giving up a .495 wOBA and ISO of .333, but he’s been dominant against righties. The Orioles’ projected lineup has mostly right-handed batters. That should keep Gore cooking on the mound tonight.
Baltimore Orioles
On the other hand, it’s looking like Kyle Bradish will get the start for the Orioles. He’ll be getting the call after coming off the Injured List.
Bradish has a 2.62 xFIP through seven batters this season. So it’s a minimal sample size, but he was a guy that many analysts were pegging as a breakout candidate.
The Nationals have hit a .093 ISO and wOBA of .274 against righties this season. Bradish likely won’t go beyond five innings, but he should be able to hold the Nationals scoreless or close to scoreless tonight.
The Pick
I’m taking the Orioles to escape this game on the road in a low-scoring affair.
MLB Pick: Orioles ML (-132) at BetMGM
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Houston Astros
Wednesday, April 19, 2023 – 08:10 PM EDT at Minute Maid Park
Teams Analysis
Houston Astros
The Blue Jays will take on Luis Garcia of the Astros. Garcia has struggled to begin the year, holding a 7.71 ERA on the season. His xFIP is also high at 5.22, and he’s walking 10.3% of batters.
Lefties have a .482 wOBA and ISO of .250, while righties have a .372 wOBA and ISO of .314. Nothing has gone right for Garcia.
He’ll have to face a formidable Blue Jays lineup with Bo Bichette and Matt Chapman, who are both slugging against righties.
Toronto Blue Jays
On the other hand, the Astros will face Jose Berrios, who has a 7.98 ERA. But his xFIP is 2.86. He’s been so much better than his ERA has shown.
Berrios has earned over 27% of strikeouts and has cut back on the walks, allowing just 4.6% of walks this season. It’s the lefties that are hurting him too. He’s allowed a .357 wOBA and ISO of .242 against lefties this season.
Only Yordan Alvarez and Kyle Tucker are threats against Berrios. So I like the Blue Jays to earn a win over the Astros with an inconsistent Berrios on the mound.
The Pick
Let’s take those Blue Jays on the road at +102.
MLB Pick: Blue Jays ML (-106) at Unibet
