• Giants vs. Marlins: Giants ML (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
• Twins vs. Red Sox: Under 9 (+100) at BetMGM
• Diamondbacks vs. Cardinals: Cardinals ML (-167) at BetMGM
There is a loaded slate of baseball games. We’ve identified three MLB picks to fire on tonight. Let’s earn some money on this beautiful Tuesday!
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins
Tuesday, April 18, 2023 – 06:40 PM ET at loanDepot park
The Giants will be batting against Edward Cabrera tonight. Cabrera is 0-1 with a 4.63 ERA, but his xFIP is actually at 7.30 to begin the year.
Cabrera has struck out 17.5% of batters, but even worse, he’s walked close to 25% of batters faced.
The Giants have four batters earning walks over 11% of the time. San Francisco has also hit an ISO of .257 against righties to begin the year.
Cabrera has been worse against righties as a righty. He’ll only have to face three righties, but those righties are dangerous, hitting a .354 ISO and wOBA of .455 combined.
San Francisco Giants
It’ll be Alex Wood on the mound for the Giants. He’s got a 1.17 ERA to begin the year, but his xFIP is also high at 6.95.
He’s keeping extra-base hits down and will take on a Miami lineup with only Jorge Soler hitting consistent extra-base hits against lefties.
The lineup needs to be more consistent against lefties. Miami will put the ball in play, but it’ll be difficult for them to hit extra-base hits, giving Wood wiggle room to get out of trouble.
Let’s take the Giants at -110.
MLB Pick: Giants ML (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
Minnesota Twins vs. Boston Red Sox
Tuesday, April 18, 2023 – 07:10 PM EDT at Fenway Park
Boston Red Sox
Chris Sale has been unlucky this year for the Red Sox. He’s coming into this game with an 11.25 ERA, but his xFIP is at 4.21 with 29.7% of strikeouts.
Righties are hitting the lefty with a .427 wOBA and ISO of .306. Sale has also struggled to get lefties out, but the Twins are hitting a .089 ISO and wOBA of .286 against lefties to begin the year. Minnesota doesn’t even work out walks against lefties.
The Twins can’t be relied on against any lefty and Sale has been better than his box score stats show.
Sonny Gray has an ERA of .53 with 19 strikeouts to begin the year, but his xFIP is at 4.53, giving Boston some hope of scoring runs tonight.
Gray has limited extra-base hits well and will take on a Red Sox lineup with just Rafael Devers consistently hitting extra-base hits against righties.
The Red Sox only have two legitimate threats in the lineup, between Alex Verdugo and Devers. Gray’s strikeout rate is high and should stay high going up against a Red Sox lineup that has three batters striking out over 29% of the time against righties.
I like the Under 8.5 in this matchup.
MLB Pick: Under 8.5 (+100) at BetMGM
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. St. Louis Cardinals
Tuesday, April 18, 2023 – 07:45 PM EDT at Busch Stadium
St. Louis Cardinals
The Diamondbacks haven’t struck out much against lefties to begin the year. They’ll face Jordan Montgomery, who is earning 22.7% of strikeouts as a left-handed pitcher.
Montgomery has a 2.45 ERA to begin the year. He’s earning over 50% of ground balls and has held teams to 18.9% of line drives.
The Diamondbacks have a couple of guys hitting lefties well, including Christian Walker and Evan Longoria, but Montgomery hasn’t allowed many extra-base hits this year. The Diamondbacks have hit over 50% of ground balls against lefties and just above 20% of line drives. It’s nothing special.
On the other hand, the Cardinals will face Drey Jameson of the Diamondbacks. He’s a top prospect and rookie for Arizona.
Jameson is 2-0 with a 1.46 ERA, but he’s holding an xFIP of 4.40 with 10.4% of walks. The strikeouts will be there, but the Cardinals have limited strikeouts to under 20% against righties.
Jameson could still get tagged by the Cardinals. He’s allowed a .200 ISO to lefties and a .174 ISO to righties. The Cardinals are hitting righties with a .183 ISO and wOBA of .355 using the projected lineup.
This should be another pitcher’s duel, but I like the Cardinals to come out on top tonight. Analytically speaking, Montgomery has out-pitched Jameson. Plus, St. Louis has more pop in the order.
Back the Cardinals at home.
MLB Pick: Cardinals ML (-167) at BetMGM