- Pirates vs. Cardinals: Cardinals ML (-167) at BetMGM
- Mets vs. Athletics: Mets -1.5 (-125) at BetMGM
- Rockies vs. Mariners: Rockies ML (+150) at BetMGM
We’ve got a loaded slate tonight in the MLB and have added a few MLB picks for the late-night slate. Let’s have ourselves a day!
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals
Friday, April 14, 2023 – 08:15 PM EDT at Busch Stadium
The Pirates are 8-5 on the season and playing some outstanding baseball. The lineup is stacked with solid offensive players, and it’s showing.
They’ll face Jake Woodford tonight. He’s got a 9.00 ERA through two starts. He’s also holding a 5.95 xFIP with 18.6% of strikeouts and 9.3% of walks.
Righties have destroyed the right-hander, hitting a .579 wOBA and ISO of .611 in 22 plate appearances.
The Pirates will only have two righties in the lineup, so that’s a bit concerning. Still, Woodford has allowed a wOBA of .333 to lefties. He’s just kept his extra-base hits down.
St. Louis Cardinals
Meanwhile, the Pirates will pitch former Cardinals starter Johan Oviedo. Oviedo has thrown two starts and has a 3.18 ERA on the season. However, his xFIP is sitting at 4.86, and he’s only struck out 18% of batters while walking 8%.
Despite all of that, Oviedo has earned 62.2% of ground balls for the Pirates and has given up only 8.1% of line drives. He’s improved throughout his first two starts this year compared to his other years.
He’s still allowed a .433 wOBA and ISO of .409 to lefties to begin the year. The Cardinals’ lefties in the lineup have hit a .234 ISO and wOBA of .354 against righties. St. Louis has the edge in this game. \
Take the Cardinals.
MLB Pick: Cardinals ML (-167) at BetMGM
New York Mets vs. Oakland Athletics
Friday, April 14, 2023 – 09:40 PM EDT at Oakland Coliseum
New York Mets
It’ll be James Kaprielian on the mound for the Athletics tonight. Kaprielian has an xFIP of 6.16 and an ERA of 11.17 to start the year.
He’s watched lefties hit a .480 ISO and righties hit a .278 ISO in 50 plate appearances combined.
The Mets haven’t been hitting the ball well, but this weekend is their time to shine against the 3-10 Athletics.
On the other hand, Kodai Senga will take the hill for the Mets. He’s been terrific, holding a 3.38 xFIP with over 31% of strikeouts.
Senga has struggled against lefties, allowing a .370 wOBA and ISO of .214. But the only lefty doing any kind of damage in the lineup for the Athletics would be Ryan Noda. He’s also struck out over 30% of the time against righties and will likely strike out against Senga tonight.
Senga has also earned 52% of ground balls, and as long as he can keep his walks down, he’ll have an excellent outing for the Mets tonight.
Take the Mets on the run line.
MLB Pick: Mets -1.5 (-125) at BetMGM
Colorado Rockies vs. Seattle Mariners
Friday, April 14, 2023 – 10:10 PM EDT at T-Mobile Park
It’ll be Marco Gonzales on the mound for the Mariners. He’s holding a 4.22 ERA but has an xFIP of 5.53.
Gonzales won’t earn a high rate of strikeouts and has walked nearly 11% of batters. He’s also allowed 28.6% of line drives and has induced only 40% of ground balls.
The left-hander has watched righties hit a .348 wOBA and ISO of .207. Lefties have also had success hitting a .396 wOBA in 14 tries.
The Rockies have little power against lefties so far this year, But Colorado should be able to put runs on the board against Gonzales as long as they limit strikeouts.
Meanwhile, Austin Gomber will get his third start of the season. He’s 0-2 with a 6.75 ERA. However, he’s been better than his ERA. His xFIP is at 5.29, and he’s walked just 4.4% of batters while giving up only 11.8% of line drives.
Seattle’s only hit a .107 ISO and wOBA of .214 against lefties to begin the year. The top of the order is more lethal for Seattle, but the lineup at the bottom will ruin any rally Seattle gets.
I’ll take the Rockies on the moneyline for a road upset.
MLB Pick: Rockies ML (+150) at BetMGM