TheRX’s Top 3 MLB Picks to Bet on April 12: Kevin Gausman to Punish the Tigers

Kevin Gausman Toronto Blue Jays St. Louis Cardinals
Kevin Gausman #34 of the Toronto Blue Jays delivers a pitch against the St. Louis Cardinals. Dilip Vishwanat/Getty Images/AFP.

Picks Summary

Athletics vs. Orioles: Orioles -1.5 (+105) at Caesars Sportsbook

Tigers vs. Blue Jays: Blue Jays -1.5 (-140) at Bet365

Reds vs. Braves: Over 7.5 (-115) at BetMGM

We’ve got a major slate of games in the MLB tonight. We’ve added three MLB picks that you should consider if you’re looking to make some profit tonight.

Oakland Athletics vs. Baltimore Orioles

Wednesday, April 12, 2023 – 06:35 PM EDT at Oriole Park at Camden Yards

Teams Analysis

Baltimore Orioles

It hasn’t been the best start to the season for Dean Kremer of the Orioles. He’ll get the start tonight but has a 10.13 ERA to begin the year.

Kremer also holds a 6.05 xFIP with 18.9% of strikeouts. He’s also walked 10.8% of batters and isn’t inducing a high rate of grounders.

Instead, he’s giving up an ISO of .400 to lefties and a .333 ISO to righties.

However, the Athletics haven’t been very consistent offensively. Oakland has hit a .137 ISO and wOBA of .263 against righties to start the season. The only players consistent at the plate are Ryan Noda and Ramon Laureano. Both have hit ISO’s above .300. But that’s it.

Oakland Athletics

On the other hand, Ken Waldichuk will man the mound for the Athletics. He’s a lefty with a 14.54 ERA in two starts. He’s been worse than Kremer.

His xFIP is at 7.31 to start the season. He’s also struck out fewer than 15% of batters and has walked 8.5%.

Waldichuk is facing way more righties than lefties. Righties have hit a .551 wOBA and ISO of .487 in 44 plate appearances. That’s a big enough sample size to prove that he’s struggling.

Baltimore will have at least six righties in the lineup. This season, the team has hit a .309 ISO and woBA of .394 against lefties.

The Pick

Let’s take the Orioles -1.5 at +105.

MLB Pick: Orioles -1.5 (+105) at Caesars Sportsbook

Detroit Tigers vs. Toronto Blue Jays

Wednesday, April 12, 2023 – 07:07 PM EDT at Rogers Centre

Teams Analysis

Toronto Blue Jays

The Tigers are just 2-8 this season. And things are about to get worse.

They’re facing Kevin Gausman, who has a 0.00 ERA in two starts this season. Gausman has struck out 14 batters and has a 3.43 xFIP with 27.5% of strikeouts this season.

The Tigers have a .087 ISO and wOBA of .252 against righties with their projected lineup. They’ve also struck out 22% of the time this season against righties.

Gausman should earn a ton of strikeouts in this game and might even get through seven innings for the first time this season.

Detroit Tigers

Meanwhile, the Tigers will pitch Eduardo Rodriguez. He’s holding a 6.30 ERA in two starts and has six strikeouts in those two games.

Rodriguez has a 6.36 xFIP with 14% of strikeouts and 9.3% of walks. He’s not inducing ground balls at a high rate and has allowed an ISO of .429 to lefties and .226 to righties.

The Blue Jays hit for a lot of power yesterday. That won’t change tonight. The Blue Jays have a wOBA of .336 with just 15.9% of strikeouts against lefties with their projected lineup this season.

The Pick

Back the Blue Jays on the run line too.

MLB Pick: Blue Jays -1.5 (-140) at Bet365

Cincinnati Reds vs. Atlanta Braves

Wednesday, April 12, 2023 – 07:20 PM ET at Truist Park

Teams Analysis

Atlanta Braves

The Reds have been surprisingly efficient in hitting the ball this year. Cincinnati has hit a .164 ISO and wOBA of .327 against righties with their projected lineup.

But they’ll face Spencer Strider, who has struck out 40% of batters this season. However, he’s also walked 13.3% of batters and has induced just 28.6% of ground balls.

Righties have a .347 wOBA against Strider, and opponents have hit 57.1% hard-hit balls against Strider too. We wouldn’t be surprised to see the Reds scratch and claw some runs against Strider tonight.

Cincinnati Reds

On the other hand, we’ve got Hunter Greene on the mound for the Reds. He’s holding a 5.63 ERA but has 13 strikeouts in two games this season.

Greene is just as wild as Strider. High strikeouts and high walks.

He’s taking on a Braves lineup that has hit a .174 ISO and wOBA of .322 against righties this season. The Braves have a very similar lineup to the Reds regarding analytics. That can’t go unnoticed.

Yesterday’s game was toe-to-toe. This game should be like that too.

The Pick

The Over sounds very appealing if we get a 3-3 game and extras. Plus, the Braves and Reds haven’t been dominant out of the pen to start the season. So that’ll help the Over.

MLB Pick: Over 7.5 (-115) at BetMGM