It’s a new week in the NBA. I’ve added three of my favorite NBA picks for today’s slate below. Let us know if you’re tailing!
Trail Blazers vs. Pistons: Over 229.5 (-110) at BetMGM
Raptors vs. Nuggets: Nuggets -6 (-110) at Caesars
Pelicans vs. Kings: Kings -5.5 (-110) at Caesars
Portland Trail Blazers vs. Detroit Pistons
Monday, March 6, 2023 – 07:00 PM EST at Little Caesars Arena
Everyone wants to watch the Dame Show! Damian Lillard has been unstoppable for the Blazers this season. He’s working his way into the MVP conversation. The only issue is that the Blazers are just 30-34 on the season and don’t have a winning record. But every single game, he amazes NBA fans around the world. He’ll likely put on another show tonight against the Detroit Pistons.
Portland Trail Blazers
Portland has scored 117.6 points per 100 possessions while shooting an effective field goal percentage of 56.3%. Meanwhile, the Pistons have given up 118.8 points per 100 possessions while allowing an effective field goal percentage of 56.2%. The Blazers also do a great job getting to the foul line and should continue that against a Pistons team that is 26th in the NBA in free throw rate defensively.
The Pistons also do some good things on the offensive end that rarely get talked about. Detroit’s consistent on the offensive glass and gets to the foul line at a top-five rate in the NBA. Bojan Bogdanovic and Isaiah Stewart won’t be playing for the Pistons tonight, but they’ve got some young guns who will step up and at least put some points on the board.
I’ll take the Over 229.5 in this matchup.
NBA Pick: Over 229.5 (-110) at BetMGM
Toronto Raptors vs. Denver Nuggets
Monday, March 6, 2023 – 09:00 PM EST at Ball Arena
The Raptors and Nuggets will play the first game against one another this season. It’s the first of two meetings this year. The Nuggets have won four last five games and look like a genuine contender for an NBA title. The Raptors don’t. They’re just under .500 and aren’t playing near the Nuggets’ level. But that doesn’t mean the Raptors can’t be a surprise.
Toronto limits turnovers at a very high rate and will be active on the glass. However, the Raptors shoot an effective field goal percentage of 51.7% and won’t have as much success on the offensive glass, with Denver allowing just 25.2% of offensive rebounds. The Nuggets could be better defensively in other areas, but at least keep teams off the glass.
Denver might not have the best defense, but the Nuggets do have the best offense. The Nuggets have added 119.1 points per 100 possessions while shooting a league-best 58.7% effective field goal percentage. The Nuggets will likely lose the turnover battle to the Raptors but could eventually have more success on the offensive glass, with the Raptors allowing 27% offensive rebounds.
The Nuggets are playing at a much higher level now than the Raptors. The offense should be able to get high-quality looks, with the Raptors allowing an effective field goal percentage of 56.8%. On their home floor, take the Nuggets to take care of business.
NBA Pick: Nuggets -6 (-110) at Caesars
New Orleans Pelicans vs. Sacramento Kings
Monday, March 6, 2023 – 10:00 PM EST at Golden 1 Center
The New Orleans Pelicans could use Zion Williamson right now. The Pelicans have won just one of their last five games and are currently under .500 by two games. They’ll hit the road and take on a Kings team that has won four of their previous five.
New Orleans Pelicans
The Pelicans are a below-average offense with nearly 28% of offensive rebounds. The team gets to the foul line at a high rate. Those are about the only two things that the offense does well. But the Kings have held teams to 25.1% of offensive rebounds and a free throw rate of just 20.2 on the defensive end. Sacramento’s defensive strengths cancel out the Pelicans’ offensive strengths.
On top of that, the Kings are scoring the most points per 100 possessions this season. They’ve also shot an effective field goal percentage of 57.8% and should end up getting to the foul line more often. The Kings might not dominate the offensive glass, but they’ll get high-quality looks and should be able to consistently hit those shots on their home floor.
I’ll take the Kings -5.5 at home against a Pelicans group just playing underwhelming basketball right now.
NBA Pick: Kings -5.5 (-110) at Caesars