We’re back at it in the NBA. It’s time to start the week strong. Here are three NBA picks to consider for tonight’s slate.
Golden State Warriors vs. Oklahoma City Thunder
Monday, January 30, 2023 – 08:00 PM EST at Paycom Center
Game Analysis
The Golden State Warriors and Oklahoma City Thunder will play for the first time this season. This is the first game of four between the two teams. The Warriors are finally back above .500. They’ve won three of their last four games and have scored 120+ points in each of those wins. In the loss to the Nets, they allowed 120 points.
There’s been a ton of scoring in Golden State games recently. The Warriors have shot an effective field goal percentage of 56.9% and are scoring at an above-average rate with 114.8 points per 100 possessions.
The Warriors will likely turn the ball over at a high rate. They’ve been bad at protecting the ball this year, while the Thunder have managed to earn 16.2% of turnovers. However, the Thunder are terrible on the defensive glass, giving the Warriors a chance to earn second-chance points.
Golden State has only added 25.4% of offensive rebounds, but with the Thunder giving up 29.9% of offensive rebounds, they could see more opportunity. The Warriors also don’t get to the foul line at a high rate, but, again, their opponents are a poor defense that fouls at a very high rate. Golden State’s fast-paced offense should play at a high level tonight.
On the other hand, the OKC is good at limiting turnovers. They’re just shooting a 53.6% effective field goal percentage. Still, they have had success on the offensive glass, with 27% of offensive rebounds, and they could see more opportunity at the foul line, with the Warriors ranking 25th defensively in free throw rate.
The Pick
The Thunder have had some major high-scoring games and some low-scoring games. But this game is a much higher-scoring game against a Thunder team that has the potential to score at a high rate too. Take the Over 242.5.
NBA Pick: Over 242.5 (-110) at BetMGM
Toronto Raptors vs. Phoenix Suns
Monday, January 30, 2023 – 09:00 PM EST at Footprint Center
Game Analysis
The Raptors defeated the Suns earlier this year, on December 30, 113-104. Toronto was home in that game, but Phoenix will be home in this game. Phoenix has won four of its last five games and is getting into a rhythm. The Suns’ only loss came to the Mavericks, 99-95. The defense was there, but the offense wasn’t.
The Suns have been an average offense all year long. They’ve added 114.2 points per 100 possessions and have turned the ball over 14.2% of the time. Still, they are very good on the offensive glass and get more looks and attempts because of it.
Phoenix won’t get to the foul line at a high rate, but the Raptors foul at a high rate, so they could see a rise in opportunities at the foul line. Toronto is also earning 17.1% of turnovers per game. If the Suns don’t protect the ball, the Raptors will make them pay.
The Raptors are good at forcing turnovers, but they’re not good at defending shots. Opponents have a 56.9% effective field goal percentage against the Raptors this season. The Suns aren’t taking the best shots but could ultimately get better looks in this game.
Meanwhile, Toronto shot a 51.6% effective field goal percentage. They’ve been taking poor shots all season but do the little things well, like limiting turnovers, dominating the offensive glass, and getting to the foul line.
The Pick
The Raptors have won three of their last four games and scored at least 113 points in each of those four games. The offense has played very well on the road, and I like that to continue against a Suns defense that allows plenty of freebies and offensive rebounds. Take the Over in this game too.
NBA Pick: Over 220.5 (-110) at BetMGM
Atlanta Hawks vs. Portland Trail Blazers
Monday, January 30, 2023 – 10:00 PM EST at Moda Center
Game Analysis
The Hawks aren’t the best offense in the league. At least they’ll limit turnovers against a Portland defense that averages under 14% of turnovers per game.
Trae Young is listed as questionable for tonight’s game, but most media members expect him to play tonight. Meanwhile, the Blazers have Jusuf Nurkic and Josh Hart listed as questionable for tonight’s game. There’s more uncertainty with those two than with Young.
Portland’s offense has done some excellent things this year. The offense has scored 116.6 points per 100 possessions while adding a 56.1% effective field goal percentage this season.
The Blazers need to protect the ball better and limit turnovers, but at least they’ll have more success on the offensive glass, earning 27.7% of offensive rebounds. Portland will also get to the foul line more in this game, as they’re holding a free throw rate of 23.7. That’s third-best in the league.
The Pick
At home, I’ve got the Blazers edging out the Hawks against the spread. It’s only -2.
NBA Pick: Trail Blazers -2 (-110) at Caesars
