TheRX’s Top 3 NBA Picks to Bet on February 8: Jazz to Dominate Offensive Glass

Jordan Clarkson Utah Jazz vs Houston Rockets
Jordan Clarkson #00 of the Utah Jazz controls the ball during the first half against the Houston Rockets. Carmen Mandato/Getty Images/AFP

We’ve got a solid slate of basketball in the NBA odds boards tonight. Here are three best bets to consider for tonight.

Sacramento Kings vs. Houston Rockets

Wednesday, February 08, 2023 – 08:00 PM EST at Toyota Center

Sacramento Kings

The Sacramento Kings have scored 135, 139, and 140 in three games against the Rockets this season. That 140-point game was on Monday, when the Rockets lost 140-120 on their home floor.

We’ve got the sequel of Monday’s game. And our analysis hasn’t changed much from Monday when we predicted the Kings earning a -5.5 spread win.

With De’Aaron Fox back in the lineup, the Kings are lethal. The Kings have added 118.1 points per 100 possessions while shooting an effective field goal percentage of 57.3%. They’ve only turned the ball over 13.9% of the time this season, and while they won’t dominate the offensive glass, the Kings always know how to consistently get to the foul line.

Houston Rockets

Houston is giving up 118.5 points per 100 possessions while allowing a 56% effective field goal percentage. The Kings are also bottom-five in turnovers, earning just over 13% of turnovers per game.

The Rockets have had success offensively against the Kings. Just less. The Kings still allow nearly 116 points per 100 possessions while giving up a 56% effective field goal percentage.

Houston’s been inconsistent from the field and doesn’t score at a high pace, adding only 109.8 points per 100 possessions with a 51.6% effective field goal percentage.

The Pick

The Rockets are only good for offensive rebounds, but the Kings have allowed just 25.5% of offensive rebounds. Still, Houston has been earning a solid amount of foul shots, but the Kings have also limited that on the defensive end.

You can ride the Kings at -8 or take the Over. With the spread starting to increase a bit, we’ll just take the Over 239 for this betting pick.

NBA Pick: Over 239 (-110) at FanDuel

Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Utah Jazz

Wednesday, February 08, 2023 – 09:00 PM EST at Vivint Arena

The Jazz and Timberwolves will play for the final time this regular season. The Jazz has won two of those three games, but every game has been tight between these two teams.

The Jazz doesn’t defend all that well. They’ve allowed 117 points per 100 possessions while giving up a 54.7% effective field goal percentage. Utah also isn’t great on the defensive glass, allowing 28.5% of offensive rebounds.

However, the Timberwolves lack consistency on the offensive glass and turn the ball over 15.5% of the time. Minnesota will get quality looks from the floor. But it’s never easy to shoot at a high rate on the road.

The Pick

Utah’s offense is much better. They’ve scored 117.9 points per 100 possessions, which is fourth best in the league. The Jazz should dominate the offensive glass and earn more foul shots.

Utah turns the ball over 15.1% of the time, and Minnesota is good at forcing turnovers. But overall, the Timberwolves need to limit second chances and foul shots, and we don’t think they’ll be able to against the Jazz on the road.

Back the Jazz at -5.5 in this one.

NBA Pick: Jazz -5.5 (-105) at SBK

Dallas Mavericks vs. Los Angeles Clippers

Wednesday, February 08, 2023 – 10:00 PM EST at Arena

Dallas Mavericks

The Mavericks are without Luka Doncic, but it sounds like Kyrie Irving will make his Dallas debut tonight.

The Mavericks got the best of the Clippers in the first game played against one another, but Los Angeles earned the last two and won both by double-digits.

Dallas still has an effective offense, adding 116.7 points per 100 possessions. Kyrie Irving never hurt an offense, that’s for sure. Dallas should still limit turnovers well and find good looks from the floor.

However, the Mavericks won’t dominate the offensive glass and get second chances. That’s something Kyrie dealt with on the Nets. He’s used to carrying the load offensively because second chances never came easy.

L.A. Clippers

The Clippers still hold teams to a 54.1% effective field goal percentage and limit teams to 25.4% offensive rebounds. The Mavericks have also been very good at getting to the line, but against the Clippers, that rate might drop a bit.

On the other hand, the Clippers have been inconsistent offensively. That’s also due to their star players being inconsistent with playing time. Anyway, Paul George and Kawhi Leonard are playing tonight, and that should boost an offense that hasn’t averaged well in any major offensive category throughout the year.

Still, the Mavericks are 15th in offensive rebounding percentage and below average in every other defensive key stat.

The Pick

The total for this game is sitting at 220.5. Dallas has scored at least 111 points in three of their last five games. The Clippers have also added 124 or more in each of their last two games, despite one game going to overtime against the Knicks.

Let’s take the Over in this game at 220.5.

NBA Pick: Over 220.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook