Super Bowl Opening Odds Analysis and Early Value Picks

Patrick Mahomes #15 of the Kansas City Chiefs looks to pass against the Cincinnati Bengals during the third quarter in the AFC Championship Game at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium on January 29, 2023 in Kansas City, Missouri. Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images/AFP

Here at TheRX we take a first look at the Opening Odds for the Super Bowl and find early-value NFL picks

Philadelphia Eagles vs. Kansas City Chiefs  

Sunday, February 12, 2023 – 06:30 PM EST at State Farm Stadium

The last time the AFC #1 seeds met the NFC #1 seeds in the Super Bowl final was five years ago which bodes well for the Philadelphia Eagles who beat the New England Patriots on that occasion. 

Early Betting Odds  

• Philadelphia Eagles (-125) at BetMGM 

• Kansas City Chiefs (+112) at BetRivers  

The early betting odds for Super Bowl LVII have the Philadelphia Eagles as slight favorites at the best price of -125 at BetMGM while the Kansas City Chiefs are a slight underdog at the plus money price of +112 at BetRivers. The spread for the game sits as high as -2 for the Eagles with some firms like Bet365 while the total is set at 49.5 in most places. 

Philadelphia Eagles 

Sunday was another profitable night for long-term readers and followers of my Super Bowl Odds Analysis as the Philadelphia Eagles won the NFC Conference at +190.  We also have the long-term bet on Jalen Hurts to be MVP alive and kicking after the star quarterback came under an injury cloud at the end of the regular NFL season. 

Undoubtedly, the extra week’s rest from the Eagles being the NFC #1 seeds aided Hurts’s recovery nicely and their progress to the Super Bowl has been seamless with a facile win over divisional rivals, the New York Giants, and an impressively solid display against the San Francisco 49ers in this weekend’s NFC Conference final. On Sunday, Hurts set a new record with his fifteenth rushing touchdown, to set a new season record for a quarterback.   

There can be no doubt, that Nick Sirianni in his second season as head coach has made a huge difference to the franchise after last year’s season of consolidation after the takeover from Doug Pederson.  His team has set the tone thus far in their play-off games and being dominant from the first possession and that bodes well for the Super Bowl where I am sure they will try and do the same again.  

Kansas City Chiefs  

A remarkable AFC Conference Final performance by Patrick Mahomes for the Kansas City Chiefs saw them edge past the Cincinnati Bengals 23-20. 

Mahomes came into the penultimate match of the season carrying an ankle sprain but still, he threw a phenomenal 326 yards for two touchdowns. His most important contribution was 12 seconds from the end of the time when his throw for a first down guaranteed the field goal attempt that Harrison Butker converted for the thrilling win. 

A couple of weeks ago before the Divisional Round we added the Kansas City Chiefs to win the Super Bowl at +325 and that helps as we seek to add further profits to our Super Bowl 2023 portfolio in next weekend’s Super Bowl extravaganza. 

Head coach Andy Reid takes the Kansas City Chiefs into their third Super Bowl in four seasons and finally puts to bed the poor record the Chiefs had recently versus the Bengals. The season has been typical Chiefs, full of high-scoring games where the class of Patrick Mahomes had often been needed at the pivotal moments and no doubt, the Mahomes factor will be huge on Super Bowl Sunday in two weeks’ time. 

Can Patrick Mahomes produce in Super Bowl LVII and shrug off those injury worries? That will be the overriding dynamic and question in two weeks’ time, and certainly, the extra week’s rest is a huge plus for the quarterback who will need to be at his best to wrestle the initiative the Eagles may try to take from the first whistle. 

Super Bowl LVII early value pick 

There will be plenty of crazy prop bets in the coming days but perhaps this game is prime for a bet given how high the total points are set at 49.5 in what could be a close tense encounter. 

In the Eagles’ last four games, they have not gone over that number while amazingly the Chiefs have also been under that number in their last three games. That suggests the sides are flourishing in defense and add in that possibly Patrick Mahomes is not 100% fit and we have a solid-looking bet. 

NFL Pick: Under 49.5 (-106) at FanDuel