Super Bowl Odds Analysis and Value Picks Before the Conference Championship Games

Jalen Hurts Philadelphia Eagles New York Giants
Jalen Hurts #1 of the Philadelphia Eagles celebrates after rushing for a touchdown against the New York Giants. Tim Nwachukwu/Getty Images/AFP.

Here at TheRX, we provide Super Bowl analysis and value NFL picks before this weekend’s Conference Championship Games.

Super Bowl Odds

TeamOddsSportsbook
Kansas City Chiefs+270BetMGM
Cincinnati Bengals+275Caesars
Philadelphia Eagles+275BetRivers
San Francisco 49ers+320Bet365

Super Bowl Odds Analysis

The betting market for this year’s Super Bowl could barely be tighter as we are left with four teams priced between +270 and +320.

The best sportsbooks favor the AFC contenders slightly with the Kansas City Chiefs and the Cincinnati Bengals vying for favoritism. That’s quite the move for the Bengals after being the only underdog win of the divisional weekend on the road to the Buffalo Bills whose wait for Super Bowl success goes on.

The NFC #1 seeds Philadelphia Eagles are closely matched with the AFC contenders while the San Francisco 49ers are the outsiders at +320.

Previous Value Super Bowl Picks

Long-term readers and followers already have made a profit on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and have plenty to follow at this stage with the San Francisco 49ers backed at +1200 for the Super Bowl, Philadelphia Eagles tipped for the NFC Conference at +190, and Jalen Hurts for MVP at +350.

Last week we brought the Kansas City Chiefs onside for Super Bowl success at +325. Like last season, plenty of profit is locked up with some clever hedging at this stage but we can still create more profit this coming weekend.

Our main winner would be the San Francisco 49ers to win the Super Bowl at +1200. If they win against the Eagles this weekend (if the Eagles win, we have assured returns on them), they will face off in the Super Bowl final against the Cincinnati Bengals or the Kansas City Chiefs.


San Francisco 49ers vs. Philadelphia Eagles

Sunday, January 29, 2023 – 03:00 PM EST at Lincoln Financial Field


Teams Analysis

Philadelphia Eagles

The spread for this game opened at -1.5 favoring the Eagles and quickly moved a point to -2.5 with the home-field advantage of Lincoln Financial Field. That is understandable, especially as the eastern seaboard is an extremely harsh unforgiving environment for visiting teams.

The divisional weekend saw the Eagles shut out their NFC East divisional rivals the New York Giants in impressive style with Jalen Hurts now back to full fitness after being under a cloud a few weeks ago.

San Francisco 49ers

Over in San Francisco, Brock Purdy, the final draft pick was thrust into the action a couple of months ago at the key quarterback position, and you wouldn’t know the guy is a rookie, he is certainly not playing like one.

What a slew of riches in that position the 49ers will have when Trey Lance and Jimmy Garoppolo are fit again but for now, the fairy tale goes on for Purdy.

The Pick

With Christian McCaffrey’s explosive running likely to be the key for this weekend’s encounter we can expect a hugely physical game in Philadelphia given Hurts will be looking to do similar for the Eagles at quarterback.

Let’s go under the points and the key number of 45.5 in Philly this weekend.

NFC Pick: Under 45.5 (-110) at BetMGM


Cincinnati Bengals vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Sunday, January 29, 2023 – 06:30 PM EST a GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium


Teams Analysis

Kansas City Chiefs

Let’s not forget how the Bengals beat the Chiefs in the same matchup for last year’s AFC final 27-24 and you can bet your bottom dollar that Andy Reid will be wanting revenge, let alone the NFL’s star quarterback Patrick Mahomes.

Mahomes though is under the cloud of an ankle strain confirmed by an MRI scan after their win over the Jaguars and that’s bad timing regardless.

Cincinnati Bengals

The other problem for the Chiefs is the rising stock of the star quarterback Joe Burrow, who has had the last laugh on many recently.

With a slow start to this season’s campaign, the Bengals went below the radar in the early portion of the season, and like last season, here we are at the business end of the year, and the Bengals are shining bright.

The Pick

Burrow described Sunday’s comprehensive win over the Bills as “Our most complete game of the season”, and that bodes well for the weekend ahead.

With that context, I like the Cincinnati Bengals to complete the AFC Final double over the Kansas City Chiefs this weekend.

AFC Pick: Bengals ML (-102) at FanDuel