With the NBA odds these tight, betting trends suggest taking the Over for Friday’s game between the Phoenix Suns and New York Knicks.
Phoenix Suns vs. New York Knicks
Friday, November 26, 2021- 7:00 PM EST at Madison Square Garden
We’ve finally reached the 20-game mark of the 2021-22 NBA regular season. Okay, only four of the league’s 30 teams have actually played that many games, but let’s not split hairs; this is the point in the season where we’ve seen enough basketball to get a pretty good idea of what everyone’s made of. That means the NBA odds at the sportsbooks have tightened up considerably.
Friday’s game between the Phoenix Suns (15-3 SU, 9-9 ATS) and New York Knicks (10-8 SU, 8-10 ATS) is a perfect example, with SBK opening the Suns as 2-point road favorites, and PointsBet setting the total at 215. Both those lines hew closely to the projections for this matchup – at least those readily available for free on the internet. This means finding the right wager for your NBA picks will require a more old-school approach.
Leather Larceny
So far, the biggest angle in NBA betting this year has been the new basketballs. The switch from Spalding to Wilson had a definite impact on shooting accuracy, as players heaved brick after brick trying to get used to the new leather. If you bet the Under on every single game up until now, drinks are on you, thanks to that 158-117 (57.5 percent) record.
Again, though, the players have had 20 games to adjust – and so has the betting market. The past seven days saw the Over cash in at 33-23 (58.9 percent), with only two overtime games in the mix to cloud the data. It could be a case of a small sample size, of course, but maybe there’s still some money to be made riding the Over if the market has yet to re-adjust.
Seven Days Of Hell
Looking specifically at these two teams, the Suns lead the league in shooting percentage at 47.9 on the season, while New York finds themselves down in 21st place at 44.2 percent. Narrow our focus to the last seven days, and it’s 52.0 percent for Phoenix (still No. 1) and 43.0 percent for the Knicks (No. 22). So at least one of these teams is finding their stroke.
It’s not a coincidence that the Suns have the Over at 4-0 this past week. As for the Knicks, they’ve cashed the Under in eight straight games, making them a poor dance partner for our purposes – but at least they might be missing one of their best defenders in center Mitchell Robinson, who’s listed as questionable after suffering a concussion this past Saturday.
Granted, less Robinson would mean more Nerlens Noel, who’s an even better defender, and back-up point guard Derrick Rose is also questionable with a sore ankle. This is another one of those situations where you should wait for the shoot-around to see who’s likely to play, then bet accordingly, but the Over does look like a viable NBA pick if the right men are in uniform.
NBA Pick: Phoenix Suns over 216 (–115) with PointsBet
