The Miami Heat are laying too many points to the Phoenix Suns on Wednesday’s NBA odds board. Can the tired Suns take advantage?
Phoenix Suns vs. Miami Heat
Wednesday, March 09, 2022 – 07:30 PM EST at FTX Arena
Did you see Victor Oladipo’s season debut for the Miami Heat? Oladipo came off the bench during Monday’s game against the Houston Rockets and looked every bit the All-Star he was before he blew out his right knee three years ago. Final score: Houston 106, Miami 123, with Oladipo pitching in 11 points and 4 assists in 14-plus minutes to help Miami cash in as 16.5-point home favorites on the NBA odds board.
With everyone but Markieff Morris (neck) now present and accounted for, the Heat are in control of the Eastern Conference standings at 44-22 SU and a very healthy 39-26-1 ATS. But Wednesday’s game against the Phoenix Suns might be the right time to “sell high” for your NBA picks.
The Heat opened as 8.5-point home faves at BetMGM, and that’s almost certainly too many points given the circumstances at play here.
Dropping Your Guard
If the Suns (52-13 SU, 34-31 ATS) were at full capacity themselves, the NBA lines would be a lot tighter for this matchup. Chris Paul is out until mid-April with a broken thumb; Devin Booker is in league protocol and appears unlikely to suit up Wednesday. Cam Johnson is also iffy at best with a sore right quad. None of them played in Tuesday’s 102-99 win over the Orlando Magic (+6 at home).
The logic behind betting Phoenix in this situation is the betting public and their tendency to overreact when star players are knocked out of the lineup. The potential profit margin gets even bigger when the team in question has a quality bench, which is definitely the case here; Cameron Payne and Landry Shamet are both decent two-way guards, and Aaron Holiday was a sneaky-good pick-up from the Washington Wizards at the trade deadline. Life could be worse.
Victor the Cleaner
As for Oladipo, he’d obviously be a welcome addition to a Heat team that’s trying to get over the top and win the title. But from a betting standpoint, there’s only so much he can do when Miami is at close to full strength. Oladipo might only be a small upgrade over starting SG Duncan Robinson; meanwhile, fellow guards Gabe Vincent and Max Strus have been relegated to third-string status after performing yeoman service for Miami this year.
This would obviously be a better spot for Phoenix if they weren’t playing on zero days of rest, but at least the trip from Orlando is a relatively short one. And we’re getting word at press time that Booker will join his teammates in Miami, which could mean that he’ll play after all. That chance alone makes the Suns worth picking up at this price. Bet accordingly.
NBA Pick: Suns +8.5 (–110) at BetMGM
