A glorious first full Saturday slate of college football action is on the betting menu and it couldn’t come soon enough. The wait is finally over as we see the powerhouses get into action.
Without further ado, let’s scope out the games and lock onto our best three college football picks for this coming weekend!
Colorado State Rams vs. Michigan Wolverines
Saturday, September 3, 2022 – 12:00 PM EDT at Michigan Stadium
If you’ve been around the betting block, following the public always feels wrong. But feeling wrong and being wrong are two different things.
That’s why those who try to be sharp by reflexively fading the public can often shoot themselves in the foot because a good handicapper knows to evaluate decisions based on the game in front of them, not blind adherence to a betting pattern.
That’s a roundabout way of saying I am laying the lumber on the chalk in this game and I am doing it at an inflated price several days before kickoff because it could go even higher.
Odds Breakdown and Prediction
Right now, the legions of Michigan fans have driven the NCAAF odds from 27 ½ to where it stands now as high as Michigan -31 ½. Fortunately for the chalk eaters like myself, there are 30 ½ point spreads floating around.
Michigan was manhandled by Georgia in the semifinals of the CFP but there’s no shame there as the Bulldogs were the eventual national champs and made short work of the legendary Crimson Tide in the CFP Finals.
Jim Harbaugh and his crew will want to make a statement in front of over 100,000 screaming lunatics inside the Big House and they will have an easy time of it against an overmatched Colorado State team.
Betting Trends
• Michigan was 5-1 ATS when favored by more than 14 points last season
• Michigan is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 home games.
• Colorado State is 3-7 ATS in their last 10 road games.
• Colorado State is 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games overall
NCAAF Pick: Michigan -30 ½ (-110) at BetMGM
NC State Wolfpack vs. East Carolina Pirates
Saturday, September 3, 2022 – 12:00 PM EDT at Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium
The average fan doesn’t pay much attention to the East Carolinas of the world, and we could even include the conference in which they reside – the American Athletic Conference.
But that’s not a bad thing for those who believe there are money-making opportunities outside of the national games that are scrutinized from every conceivable angle. The less scrutiny the better the opportunity to exploit weak lines.
The East Carolina Pirates won’t attract that kind of attention but their opponents on Saturday, NC State, have a bit more cachet and because they’re a relatively known brand, the betting public will be happy to lay the double digits on a visiting favorite they don’t know much about against a team in which they know nothing about. And we say – let them.
Odds Breakdown and Prediction
The line could rise even higher than it is because of this bet-who-you-know mentality but we have to take the lines we have right now and getting the Pirates +11 ½ at FanDuel looks like value from where we are standing.
The Pirates went 3-1 against the number as an underdog of 10 points or more last season. Kansas State, a better team from top to bottom than East Carolina, is not good enough to run away from a team that was 8-4 ATS overall and 4-2 ATS at home. This will be a close contest and because of that, we are siding with the Pirates at a nice price.
Betting Trends
• The home team is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings.
• Wolfpack are 5-13 ATS in their last 18 road games.
• Pirates are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games overall.
NCAAF Pick: East Carolina + 11 ½ (-115) at FanDuel
Troy Trojans vs. Ole Miss Rebels
Saturday, September 3, 2022 – 04:00 PM EDT at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium
The Rebels enter the season ranked No. 21 in the nation and I believe that ranking will rise throughout the season. Ole Miss enjoyed their first winning season since 2015 last year and Lane Kiffin is in it to win it.
Prediction
The polarizing head coach has plenty of tricks up his sleeve and let’s not forget that the Rebels played well at home last season, going undefeated at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium and registering a 5-2 ATS mark.
They should have no problem moving the chains early and often against a small Sun Belt foe like Troy.
Betting Trends
• Rebels are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 non-conference games.
• Rebels are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games in September.
• Trojans are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games overall.
• Trojans are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games.
NCAAF Pick: Ole Miss -21 ½ (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
