The RX’s Top MLB Pick: Twins ML (+135) at WynnBET
In a way, making baseball picks is all about market size. Teams from regional markets with smaller fanbases carry more betting value than their big-city cousins; bonus points if the team in question represents one of the two Central divisions in Major League Baseball.
The Minnesota Twins definitely fit the bill. They lead off our MLB picks for Friday’s busy slate, and to give the Twins even more value, they’re facing a team with a market that stretches over 5,000 miles from coast to coast.
Picks Summary
- Twins ML (+135) at WynnBET
- Rockies ML (+186) at SBK
- Pirates-Mariners Over 7 (-120) at Caesars Sportsbook
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Minnesota Twins
Friday, May 26, 2023 – 08:10 PM EDT at Target Field
The Blue Jays (26-25, minus-4.20 betting units at press time) do throw a bit of a curveball at our market-based approach. They don’t have much of a following below the 49th Parallel, but nearly everyone in Canada is a Jays fan. Their betting action will impact the MLB odds to some extent, depending on which online sportsbooks they’re using.
To be fair, the Twins (26-24, minus-2.87 units) do have a pocketful of fans across the border – skol to all our readers in the Thunder Bay area. But this is otherwise a classic small-market team that casual bettors don’t pay much attention to.
Although both teams are slumping a bit right now, Minnesota is a bargain at +135 with Louie Varland (3,64 xFIP) taking the mound opposite Kevin Gausman (2.71 xFIP). The Jays have the advantage on paper, but again, the value is with Varland; he’s up 1.49 betting units this year on a team record of 3-2.
MLB Pick: Twins ML (+135) at WynnBET
New York Mets vs. Colorado Rockies
Friday, May 26, 2023 – 08:40 PM EDT at Coors Field
We’ve got another live dog here in the Rockies (21-29, minus-0.27 units), although not quite as live as Minnesota. Getting them at home helps – Colorado is 12-13 and 0.24 units in the black at Coors Field, while the very large-market Mets (25-25, minus-6.25 units) are 13-16 and 5.88 units in debt away from Flushing.
This is also another opportunity to fade Max Scherzer (5.07 xFIP). The former three-time Cy Young winner is having the worst season of his career by far, and while Colorado’s Connor Seabold (5.30 xFIP) has been even worse, the sophomore righty doesn’t carry the same burden of expectations as his chalkier colleague.
MLB Pick: Rockies ML (+186) at SBK
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Seattle Mariners
Friday, May 26, 2023 – 10:10 PM EDT at T-Mobile Park
This is more of a slight lean compared to our two moneyline picks, but Over 7 is the right call when the Mariners (Under 26-23) host the Pirates (Under 25-22-2) this Friday.
You definitely don’t want to bet big with Mitch Keller (2.99 xFIP) throwing for Pittsburgh and George Kirby (3.73 xFIP) responding for Seattle. However, Kirby is vulnerable to being overvalued based on his 2.62 ERA, and the Pirates bullpen (No. 15 in FanGraphs WAR) offers mediocre support for Keller. Bet accordingly.
MLB Pick: Over 7 (-120) at Caesars Sportsbook
