The Reds offense has been red hot to start the year but after scoring just three runs last night, what can we expect from Cincinnati’s offense against the Giants tonight?
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Francisco Giants
Tuesday, April 13, 2020 – 9:45pm EST at Oracle Park
Probable Pitchers
● Reds: Luis Castillo (1-1, 6.97 ERA)
● Giants: Kevin Gausman (0-0, 1.32 ERA)
The Giants offense went missing yesterday even after going up against a lefty in Wade Miley that had struggled against right-handed batters. The Giants offense has not been good lately and now they’ll have another major test going up against Luis Castillo of the Reds.
Luis Castillo started the season allowing 10 runs (eight earned) in 3.1 innings pitched off eight hits and two walks against the Cardinals. In that first start, he didn’t get a single strikeout but was still able to get 11 ground balls to seven fly outs.
After that miserable showing against the Cardinals, Castillo went seven strong against the Pirates, allowing no runs on four hits with five strikeouts and one walk. Castillo produces nearly 58 percent of ground balls and gets 10.53 strikeouts per nine innings. He’s walked just over three batters per nine innings and rarely allows home runs at .67 per nine innings.
Castillo will have his poor moments but he’s a fantastic pitcher who should have success against this Giants lineup that can’t seem to figure out hitting early into the season. There’s not a single Giants batter that currently has a weighted OBA of above .350. While the Giants have been able to work out walks, they’ve struggled getting hits consistently which should be a problem against Castillo.
One thing of note is that the Giants have been able to limit ground balls hit against righties but they haven’t gone up against anyone close to Castillo in terms of ground ball rate. On the other hand, Kevin Gausman will take the hill for the Giants. He didn’t get nearly as much love as he should have in 2020. He had a high strikeout rate and left nearly 75 percent of runners on base. On top of that, he’s been able to limit walks to 2.33 per nine innings and home runs under one per nine innings.
Gausman has gone over six innings in both starts this season and allowed just one run in both starts as well. Strikeouts aren’t as high as they were last year but hits are low and walks are low, giving him two quality starts to begin the season. However, he’ll go up against a Reds offense that has looked incredible against righties this season.
The Reds lineup has seven batters that have a wOBA of .354 or higher and five batters with a wOBA of .380 or higher. Walks are low and strikeouts are also low for this Reds team that has four lefties and a balanced offense that can really work Gausman. Gausman strikes out lefties nearly as much as he does righties. It’ll be up to the lefties to get on base and create havoc to score runs.
Prediction
Last night’s game finished 3-0 with neither team hitting their team total, even with match-ups that looked really good on paper. That likely changes for one team tonight and that’s the Reds. The Reds are as hot as ever and should be able to get to Gausman in this game to reach a small team total that is totally attainable. The team total over for the Reds is currently at 3.5 and with the way the offense has hit righties this season, I’ll take that. No matter how good Gausman has been, it’s a tough matchup against the Reds lineup that from top to bottom can hit you.
MLB Bet: Reds Over 3.5 Team Total (-120) at Bet 365
