The Mets offense hasn’t been great this season but will the nicer weather and being at home change their fortunes against the Red Sox?
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Mets
Tuesday, April 27, 2020 – 7:10 PM EDTat Citi Field
● Red Sox: Garrett Richards (0-2, 6.48 ERA)
● Mets: David Peterson (1-2, 6.75 ERA)
The Red Sox offense has been one of the bigger surprises to start the season. They sit at 14-9 on the year and thanks to some clutch hitting, especially on the road, they’re in first place in the AL East. On the other hand, the Mets have been dealt with plenty of cancellations, postponements and lots of poor weather, playing in the rain, cold, and even the snow. The weather looks nice today and that should bode well for both teams. The Mets will send out David Peterson who has a 6.75 ERA on the season.
Dating back to last year, Peterson has struck out 8.29 batters per nine innings but has walked four per nine innings. The lefty has faced the Phillies twice and Cubs once this season. He’s had one solid performance but two of those three games, he’s left without even going five innings, allowing 12 runs in two games and one against the Phillies at home. Peterson is allowing a .349 wOBA against lefties this season and an ISO of .275 against righties this season. The Red Sox lineup features it all with lefties like Alex Verdugo and Rafael Devers and righties like JD Martinez and Xander Bogaerts. This team will have five righties in the lineup against Peterson and two other lefties that can have some success against lefties to begin with.
On the other hand, Garrett Richards will take the hill for the Red Sox. He’s been awful since coming to Boston this season. Richards has allowed 14 runs and 12 earned runs in 16.2 innings through four starts with 18 hits and 13 walks. He has only struck out 12 batters and has more walks than strikeouts through four starts. Dating back to last year, he has struck out 7.68 batters per nine innings and allowed nearly four walks per nine innings as well. Righties are hitting a wOBA of .381 while lefties are hitting a wOBA of .339 against Richards this season.
The Mets hitting hasn’t been tremendous but on paper it looks tremendous. At home, against Richards, in nicer weather, expectations are a bit higher for this offense now. They’ll have five lefties in the lineup including Brandon Nimmo, Francisco Lindor, Dom Smith, Michael Conforto and Jeff McNeil. If you looked at career stats, things would look bright for the Mets. If you look at stats this season, things aren’t as bright. Only Nimmo has been consistently able to get on base at a high rate against righties this season. JD Davis also has a high wOBA against righties but has only had 28 plate appearances due to an injury earlier in the season on a hit by pitch. Also, Pete Alonso is hitting righties at a higher rate than lefties to start the season.
Since joining the MLB, that’s always been the case but his strikeout numbers are high and his walk numbers are low. Prediction Peterson struck out 10 in his last start at Citi Field against the Phillies. He’s got solid strikeout stuff but will go up against a tough Red Sox offense. On the other hand, the Mets lineup has been dreadful to start the year but we’re going to assume that the offense picks it back up in better weather, at home. Let’s take Over 8.5 in this match-up. If it’s a 4-4 game, we’re winning this one.
MLB Bet: Over 8.5 (-110) at Bet 365