Pittsburgh Steelers vs Indianapolis Colts NFL Week 12 Betting Preview

Screen Shot 2016-11-24 at 11.15.15 AMThanksgiving night NFL action as the Pittsburgh Steelers will invade Lucas Oil Stadium to battle it out with the Indianapolis Colts, who will be without Andrew Luck for this one. The Steelers are 5-5 on the year and off a 24-9 road win over Cleveland, while the 5-5 Colts come in off a 24-17 home win over Tennessee. This contest has a start time of 8:30 pm EST.

Vegas odds have the Steelers listed as 9 point favorites, while the total has been set at 47. This contest will be televised on NBC with a start time of 8:30 pm EST.

Breaking Down The Pittsburgh Steelers

The Pittsburgh Steelers have been struggling as they are just 1-4 in their last 5 games, with that lone win being vs lowly Cleveland, who has yet to win a gem this year. That win came last week and now the Steelers are looking to build off that win when they face the Colts, who will be playing without Andrew Luck. This may be a very good spot for the Steelers to grab a huge win, but can they cover the inflated line? We shall see. The Steelers have been led by the big 3 on offense of Ben Roethlisberger (2524 yards, 20 TDs, 7 INTs), Le’Veon Bell (579 yards rushing) and Antonio Brown (907 yards receiving). Big Ben is 12th in the league in QBR at 96.3, while Brown is 4th in the league in receiving yards. The Steelers could get more from their run game, but still overall they are 12th in total offense, 7th in passing, 23rd in rushing and 15th in scoring, putting up 23.8 ppg. That passing game could have a field day vs the worst pass defense in the league.  On defense, the Steelers have also struggled vs the pass, but they will not be facing Luck in this one, so they catch a break there. Overall the defense is 22nd in yards allowed, 26th vs the pass, 9th vs the run and 14th in points allowed, giving up 21.5 ppg.

Trends: The Steelers have gone 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up win of more than 14 points, but just 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games after allowing less than 250 total yards in their previous game and 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games in November. The Over is 22-10 in their last 32 games after allowing less than 250 total yards in their previous game, while the Under is 19-7-1 in their last 27 games following a straight up win.

Breaking Down The Indianapolis Colts

The Colts have been hot of late as they have won 3 of their last four games and have climbed back to .500 for the year. They are currently a game out of first in the AFC South, so to say that missing Andrew Luck for this one is a huge blow would be an understatement. He is actually listed as doubtful for this game, but it is highly unlikely that he will play and the fact that the Colts are such huge home dogs indicates that he will not play. The Colts will turn to Scott Tolzien, who has thrown 1 regular season pass the last 3+ years. He is a clear step down from Luck and they may have to rely on Frank Gore a bit more in this game and he has not had a great year so far as he has run for just 642 yards, including just 208 in his last 4 games. Running against the Steelers defense is not the way to go. The colts need to have a passing game if they hope to win this one. Overall. The Colts are 14th in total offense, 12th in passing, 24th in rushing and 7th in scoring, putting up 26.3 ppg. The defense is really where this team must step up if they home to win this game. That defense comes in ranked 30th in total yards allowed, 32nd vs the pass, 24th vs the run and 26th in points allowed, giving up 27.3  ppg so far. That pass defense is in trouble here.

Trends:  The Colts have gone 12-1-1 ATS in their last 14 Thursday games and 8-0 ATS in their last 8 games in November, but just 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win and 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game. The Over is 10-4 in their last 14 games in November, while the Under is 4-1-1 in their last 6 games in Week 12.

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