It’s never fun when your college football picks don’t come true, but some are easier to wave off than others. The Penn State Nittany Lions were available as +700 road dogs on the moneyline for last week’s game versus the Ohio State Buckeyes, and they nearly pulled it off, but Ohio State won 33-24. If you took the more conservative route and chose to back Penn State as 18.5-point underdogs, well done.
Penn State Nittany Lions vs. Maryland Terrapins
Saturday, November 6, 2021 – 03:30 PM. EDT at Maryland Stadium
No shame either way. Now that we’ve got the Nittany Lions (5-3 SU and ATS) lined up to face the Maryland Terrapins (5-3 SU, 3-5 ATS) this Saturday, it’s time once again to choose a side – or is it? There’s a small window of arbitrage available on the NCAAF odds board at press time, with MaximBet pricing Penn State at –9.5 (–111) and Caesars Sportsbook pricing Maryland at +11 (–110). This window does include the magic number 10, so maybe it’s worth playing both sides of this matchup.
In theory, the best way to find out is to use an arbitrage calculator, which you can find online. These calculators use moneylines (or decimal odds), though, and at press time, there’s no ML arb available for this matchup. That means we can’t say for sure what the return on your investment might be. That’s unless we take those point spreads and use their “fair” moneyline equivalents at Wizard of Odds for a rough estimate.
In this case, –9.5 works out to –304, then we tack on those 11 cents of juice to get –315; +11 is the same as +362, then we take away 10 cents to get +352. Plug those numbers in, and the calculator suggests betting $100 dollars on Penn State, then $28.52 on Maryland, locking in a profit of 2.51 percent.
Of course, using those same bet sizes on the point spreads won’t maximize your return like it would with the moneylines, but there should still be some wiggle room to “middle” this matchup – assuming that arbitrage play is still available when you read this. This is why it’s highly recommended that you sign up for betting accounts at multiple sportsbooks, so you can take advantage of these market inefficiencies when they crop up.
Otherwise, if you’re only going to bet one side of this game, Penn State does look like the right choice for your Week 10 NCAAF picks at –9.5.
Each team is 5-3, but the Lions have played by far the tougher schedule, and their Week 8 loss to Illinois (+24.5 away) in nine overtimes deserves an asterisk; QB Sean Clifford was coming off an injury but appears healthy now. Whichever path you choose to take, shop smart, and bet accordingly.
NCAAF Pick: Penn State -9.5 (–111) at MaximBet