Most college basketball games are inconsequential. There are hundreds of teams, and only 68 of them make it to the big dance. To make it to the NCAA tournament, teams must either win their conference or make it as an at-large team. Typically, teams in weaker conferences must win their conference to make the tournament. What makes the Big 12 different is that they are currently ranked as the second-best conference in college basketball. As a result, the Big 12 expects to send several teams to the national championship tournament each year.
Oklahoma Sooners vs. Texas Tech Red Raiders
at United Supermarkets Arena
- Oklahoma Sooners (#24): 11-4
- Texas Tech Red Raiders (#10): 12-5
Stakes of the Matchup
Currently, the second-ranked team in the country Baylor plays in the Big 12. Of the ten teams that play in the “Big 12”, six of them are ranked among the AP top 25 teams. Two of the two teams face off on Monday night in Texas Tech (10) and Oklahoma (24). The oddsmakers have determined that Texas Tech should easily win as they are favored by seven points currently on PointsBet.
Currently, Oklahoma has an 11-4 overall record while Texas Tech has a 12-5 record. In conference play, OU is 6-3 while TTU is 4-4. KenPom projects the Red Raiders to finish with a 10-7 conference record while the Sooners will finish with an 11-7 conference record. Both teams have done well this season, so tonight’s game is going to be great to watch.
How Texas Tech and Oklahoma Match Up
Both Texas Tech and Oklahoma play at a similar slow tempo of basketball. TTU currently averages only 70.7 possessions per game which is slightly lower than the median college basketball team which averages 72 possessions per game. OU averages 71.8 possessions per game. The Red Raiders and the Sooner are not among the slowest teams in college basketball, but for the Red Raiders to cover their hefty seven point spread much as must go right.
Monday night’s game is going to come down to how well Oklahoma’s offense does against Texas Tech’s defense. The Sooners have the 25th best adjusted offensive efficiency in college basketball, while the Red Raiders have the 13th best adjusted defensive efficiency.
Recently Oklahoma has performed well against strong defenses. On Saturday against 9th ranked Alabama, OU won outright as three-point underdogs against an Alabama team with the 7th best adjusted defensive efficiency in college basketball. In their previous game against 5th ranked Texas, Oklahoma won outright as three-point underdogs. What was most impressive about that win was that Oklahoma scored 80 points against a Texas team with the 11th best adjusted defensive efficiency in the country. In my opinion, the reason why Oklahoma has a 6-3 record in conference play in the second-toughest conference in the country is because their offense does well against strong defenses.
Prediction
Monday night’s game will be much closer than the spread suggests. I really like Oklahoma to cover the spread as seven-point underdogs. Texas Tech while a strong team has not played well in Big 12 conference play. Oklahoma has played very well in conference play. I believe that Oklahoma’s offense will continue their success against a top-tier Texas Tech defense. That is why I am betting on the Oklahoma spread as seven-point underdogs and for Oklahoma to win outright as +260 moneyline underdogs.
NCAAB Pick: Oklahoma Moneyline +260 (FanDuel) & Oklahoma Spread +7 (-110) (PointsBet)
