The Oklahoma Sooners usually beat the Oklahoma State Cowboys at the Bedlam game, so why should Saturday’s NCAAF pick be any different?
Oklahoma Sooners vs. Oklahoma State Cowboys
Saturday, November 27, 2021 – 07:30 PM EST at Boone Pickens Stadium
This Saturday’s Bedlam Series matchup between the No. 13 Oklahoma Sooners (10-1 SU, 5-6 ATS) and No. 9 Oklahoma State Cowboys (10-1 SU, 9-2 ATS) is one of the biggest rivalry games in college football betting. And that usually means one thing: The Sooners win. They’ve taken each of the last six contests, including five straight under head coach Lincoln Riley – leading to three straight invitations to the College Football Playoff.
Things are different this year. Riley no longer has a Heisman Trophy winner at quarterback – no offense to young Caleb Williams, who will probably be on next year’s shortlist – and thanks to the strength of schedule, it’s the Cowboys who can keep their slim CFP hopes alive with a win this Saturday.
The college football odds at MaximBet have Oklahoma State as 3.5-point home faves at press time. They’re probably going to win, but the Sooners are the right choice for your Week 13 NCAAF picks.
The Williams Wall
In this case, we’re specifically referring to the moneyline, where Oklahoma can be had for +160 at bet365. The early consensus reports at OddsTrader show 94 percent support for the Sooners here, compared to 51 percent for the point spread. In theory, there isn’t much difference between the two lines; Wizard of Odds says +160 on the ML is the same as +4 ATS, and Oklahoma are indeed priced at +4 at most of our preferred online sportsbooks.
But this is almost a coin-flip game on paper, with either side capable of winning, and recent history has been very kind to OU. It also wasn’t that long ago when Williams was considered a Heisman candidate. That fell apart in Week 11 when Oklahoma (–4 at home) lost 27-14 to the Baylor Bears, knocking them out of CFP contention, but Williams bounced back and helped lead the Sooners to a 28-21 win over the Iowa State Cyclones as 3-point home faves. That’s an important milestone for his career, a victory over a team with a pretty good defense – No. 29 on the SP+ charts at ESPN heading into Week 13.
The River Runs Red Of course, Iowa State’s defense isn’t as good as Baylor’s (No. 15), and it certainly isn’t as good as Oklahoma State’s (No. 6). But the win over ISU was a definite step forward in Williams’s development, after being pressed into service and replacing Spencer Rattler during the Red River Showdown and leading OU to a 55-48 comeback over the Texas Longhorns (+4).
As for the Sooners falling behind the Cowboys in the polls, that’s largely to do with how Rattler struggled in narrow victories over Tulane (+31 away), Nebraska (+22.5 away) and West Virginia (+17.5 away). Losing to Baylor was finally enough to wake up the betting public; now it’s the ‘Pokes who appear slightly over-valued in the marketplace. Bet accordingly.
NCAAF Pick: Oklahoma +160 at bet365