The Oklahoma Sooners and Baylor Bears lead the Big 12 in scoring, so the Over is a natural NCAAF pick for Saturday’s matchup in Waco.
No. 8 Oklahoma Sooners vs. No. 12 Baylor Bears
Saturday, November 13, 2021 – 12:00 PM EST at McLane Stadium
How often do you get to say the Oklahoma Sooners are undervalued in college football betting?
The Sooners (9-0 SU, 4-5 ATS) are undefeated this year, but at No. 8 in the polls, they’re not considered good enough to make the playoff. And yet here they are, covering three of their last four games since Caleb Williams took over at quarterback for Spencer Rattler. Sharp bettors appear to have caught on.
Heading into Saturday’s matchup with the No. 12 Baylor Bears (7-2 SU, 6-3 ATS), the early consensus figures at OddsTrader show 93 percent support for Oklahoma as 5.5-point road favorites on the NCAAF odds board at MaximBet. That looks like a pretty tight line for this contest, though. Perhaps there will be more value with the Over on the posted total of 62.5 points at SBK.
The Life Of Riley
Bettors have gotten used to seeing Oklahoma with sky-high totals ever since Lincoln Riley took over as head coach in 2017. That’s what happens when you have quarterbacks like Baker Mayfield, Kyler Murray and Jalen Hurts to work with – all of them starting in the NFL now.
Rattler didn’t quite measure up to that standard, and the Sooners started the year 1-4 ATS with him under center. Despite Rattler’s shortcomings, the Over was still 3-2 during his tenure. Then came the Red River Showdown versus the Texas Longhorns in Week 6. Rattler started the game, but Williams finished, leading Oklahoma to a 55-48 comeback win (Over 65) as 4-point road faves. The Over is 2-1 since then, and Williams (+700) is now fifth on the Heisman Trophy odds list at FanDuel and other top sportsbooks.
Scoring The Football
Unfortunately for the Sooners, their defense is the reason why they’re not in the College Football Playoff conversation – at least for the moment. The Week 10 SP+ ratings at ESPN have Oklahoma pegged at No. 2 in offensive efficiency, but No. 55 on defense. Allowing 24.2 points per game (No. 59 overall) has kept the Sooners from making a dent in the CFP rankings – but it does help the Over get to the pay window.
Baylor also have the Over at 6-3 this year, even if they’re known more for their defense, where they’re ranked No. 19 overall in SP+ compared to No. 32 on offense. That’s in terms of efficiency, though; in raw scoring, the Bears are second in the Big 12 (and No. 18 overall) at 36.3 points per game, behind only the Sooners at 42.9 points (fifth overall). With no inclement weather expected over Waco, this matchup should be another high-scoring affair. Bet accordingly.
NCAAF Pick: Over 62.5 (–119) at SBK