The great thing about putting underdogs in your moneyline NFL picks is that you don’t have to get the majority of them right to make a profit. We split the two picks in our Week 6 Upset Alert, cashing in once again with the New York Giants (+215), but whiffing on the Denver Broncos (+210).
We did say it would take some intestinal fortitude to bet on Denver – but they almost got the job done despite themselves in Monday’s 19-16 overtime loss to the L.A. Chargers. We’ve got another one of those cringe-inducing teams leading off this week, so make sure you have your pink bismuth at the ready before proceeding.
Cleveland Browns vs. Baltimore Ravens
Sunday, October 23, 2022 – 01:00 PM EDT at M&T Bank Stadium
We don’t have the Giants on our list this week (although they almost made it), but we are going to fade the team they beat in Week 6. The 3-3 Ravens had one of their classic meltdowns; QB Lamar Jackson committed back-to-back turnovers in the fourth quarter to let New York erase a 10-point deficit and win 24-20.
The 2-4 Browns aren’t quite as good as the Giants, but they do have some key similarities – including at running back, where Nick Chubb is well on his way to a fourth straight Pro Bowl invitation.
Chubb leads all qualifying tailbacks in rushing DYAR at Football Outsiders, and while he isn’t quite as good as Saquon Barkley (No. 14) at catching balls in the flat, Chubb’s strengths match up very well against Baltimore’s weaknesses on run defense.
Plus, QB Jacoby Brissett has performed yeoman service for the Browns, posting league-average numbers in relief of the suspended Deshaun Watson. You can smell the betting value clear across the Cuyahoga.
NFL Pick: Browns (+240) at SBK
Kansas City Chiefs vs. San Francisco 49ers
Sunday, October 23, 2022 – 04:25 PM EDT at Levi’s Stadium
Speaking of betting value, Jimmy Garoppolo. Everyone’s favorite punching bag is back under center for San Francisco, and as far as the analytics are concerned, he’s outperforming his opposite number this Sunday.
Here are the Top 3 quarterbacks in passing DVOA (min. 90 attempts) at Football Outsiders heading into Week 7:
• Tua Tagovailoa, Miami
• Josh Allen, Buffalo
• Jimmy Garoppolo, San Francisco
Not included on this list is Patrick Mahomes. He’s fourth in passing DVOA, but more importantly for our NFL picks, Mahomes has been saddled by the league’s No. 28-ranked defense.
Kansas City has been especially bad against the pass, and San Francisco’s offensive line ranks ninth overall in adjusted sack rate, giving Garoppolo the time he needs to operate. Let’s hope the turf at Levi’s Stadium doesn’t swallow him up.
NFL Pick: 49ers (+130) at SugarHouse