Okay, maybe we can promise you perfection every week. It was another 2-0 sweep for our Week 5 Upset Alert picks, with the New York Giants (+340) beating the Green Bay Packers 27-22, and the Houston Texans (+275) beating the Jacksonville Jaguars 13-6. So much win.
But seriously, though: This rush won’t last forever. All we can do is tell you which underdogs have the most betting value at the best sportsbooks. It’s up to you whether and how much you want to bet – then the teams themselves have to do their part.
With all that being said, there’s one question we’ve got to ask: Do you have the intestinal fortitude to bet on the Denver Broncos?
Denver Broncos vs. Los Angeles Chargers
Monday, October 17, 2022 – 08:15 PM EDT at SoFi Stadium
That’s right: the Broncos. The same team that absolutely stunk up the joint in last Thursday’s 12-9 loss to the Indianapolis Colts (+150 away). The same team that might be about to fire head coach Nathaniel Hackett six weeks into his first NFL head coaching gig.
Why Take the Broncos?
Denver has to get their betting value from somewhere. They’re a complete mess on offense, but they have the No. 4-ranked defense in the AFC, according to the Simple Rating System numbers at Pro Football Reference. And the three games the Broncos lost were by a combined 13 points.
Why Fade the Chargers?
QB Russell Wilson (shoulder/lat) is expected to play Monday, and while he does rank No. 20 overall on the passing DVOA charts at Football Outsiders, he’ll probably look a lot better facing the Chargers’ defense (minus-3.0 DSRS), which will be without edge rusher Joey Bosa and his torn groin for the next several weeks.
Let’s take the Broncos for our NFL picks.
NFL Pick: Broncos (+210) at SBK
Baltimore Ravens vs. New York Giants
Sunday, October 16, 2022 – 01:00 PM EDT at MetLife Stadium
We can’t get enough of those G-Men. However bad you think Wilson has been, he’s out-performed Giants QB Daniel Jones (No. 23 overall). Yet head coach Brian Daboll has coaxed a 4-1 record out of this team, thanks in part to the creative use of RB Saquon Barkley in the wildcat.
Why Fade the Ravens?
Really, the Ravens should be better than 3-2. But they’ve got their Achilles’ heel, and it’s their run defense, which ranks No. 27 in Adjusted Line Yards at Football Outsiders.
Why Take the Giants?
Barkley should have no problem getting through the first and second levels, forcing Baltimore’s secondary to put in extra work against the rush and leaving them vulnerable to big passing plays.
Big Blue have their own issues with run defense, so Ravens QB Lamar Jackson might have a field day this Sunday – or he might make one or two of his signature bone-headed decisions. It’s worth the gamble with these NFL odds.
NFL Pick: Giants (+215) at Caesars Sportsbook