100% of the time, it works all the time. Both our Week 4 Upset Alert picks cashed in; the New York Jets (+160) beat the Pittsburgh Steelers 24-20, and the Seattle Seahawks (+185) beat the Detroit Lions 48-45, just like nature intended.
We can’t promise perfection every week, but our next two moneyline picks on the NFL odds have even more potential betting value to offer than the Jets and Seahawks did. Let’s see what makes them so tasty.
New York Giants vs. Green Bay Packers
Sunday, October 09, 2022 – 09:30 AM EDT at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium
Why Take the Giants?
The 3-1 Giants make their return to our underdog list after splitting their past two games as small favorites – most recently beating the Chicago Bears 20-12 as -140 home faves. There’s a lot to like about what the G-Men have achieved under their new head coach, Brian Daboll. Quarterback play is not one of them.
Daniel Jones ranks No. 30 on the passing DVOA charts at Football Outsiders, down from No. 26 last year. However, Big Blue ranks seventh overall in rushing efficiency behind RB Saquon Barkley (5.5 yards per carry), who has yet to cough up a fumble this year.
Why Fade the Packers?
The 2-2 Packers, meanwhile, had their hands full with the New England Patriots (+400) last week before beating them 27-24 in overtime. As usual, Green Bay’s offense is carrying their mediocre defense and special teams, but QB Aaron Rodgers doesn’t have the same weapons to throw at anymore, leaving him No. 15 overall in passing DVOA. Fade these Packers with extreme prejudice.
NFL Pick: Giants (+340) at SBK
Houston Texans vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Sunday, October 9, 2022 – 1:00 PM EDT at TIAA Bank Field
Why Take the Texans?
It might take a bit more resolve to put the 0-3-1 Texans in your NFL picks, but their 2-1-1 ATS record shows how close Houston has come to get in the win column. Their hidden talent is in special teams, where they rank fifth overall in DVOA.
The only quibble in that department is with PK Ka’imi Fairbairn, who rates slightly below league average in DVOA on field goals and extra points. But even there, Fairbairn has only missed one figgie attempt this year (way wide from 46 yards out), and Houston’s kick-offs lead the league in efficiency.
Why Fade the Jaguars?
Compare and contrast to Jacksonville, who ranks No. 16 overall in special teams efficiency. PK Riley Patterson (7-for-8 on figgies) has performed at about the same level as Fairbairn, but the Jags aren’t getting the same results on their kick-offs, and they haven’t seen much from their return game, either.
Special teams might not be enough to get the Texans their first win Sunday, but it does give them the tasty odds we need for when they finally cash in, so bet accordingly at the best sportsbooks.
NFL Pick: Texans (+275) at FanDuel
