We’ve selected five games that we think are worth making part of your NFL picks. Now that we’re headed into Week 5, there are quite a few teams that are desperate for wins if they want to have any hopes of making the playoffs.
A few of these are divisional matchups which are of course the most important. With that in mind, we’ve found a few spots we think you can cash in on.
Dallas Cowboys vs. Los Angeles Rams
Sunday, October 09, 2022 – 04:25 PM EDT at SoFi Stadium
Cowboys Face Tough Test Against Rams
The Dallas Cowboys have been playing really well under backup quarterback Cooper Rush. There’s a small chance that Dak Prescott could return to the lineup and it remains to be seen if that’s a good thing or not.
The line for this game is -4.5 Rams with the total at 43.5. I think there’s value on the Over in this spot which originally opened at 52.5. Of course, things have changed a lot since that opening total but I believe it’s gone too far the other way.
The Rams have to be getting desperate with the way they’ve opened the season. Their offense simply hasn’t been good enough and their defense has issues as well.
Dallas has shown that at the very least they can move the ball and put points on the board. I think the Rams win this one 27-21 and this game goes over the low 43.5 point total.
NFL Pick: Over 43.5 (-110) at FanDuel
San Francisco 49ers vs. Carolina Panthers
Sunday, October 09, 2022 – 04:05 PM EDT at Bank of America Stadium
Baker Mayfield Is In Trouble
Baker Mayfield’s second chance at life as a starting quarterback is not going as planned. He has easily been one of the worst starting quarterbacks in the NFL and if they had a viable backup, he would have probably lost his job already.
He comes into this game against the San Francisco 49ers as a -6.5 point home dog which seems about right. The total is where I think the value is here.
The 49ers’ defense is the real deal and I don’t see the Panthers scoring over 10 points in this contest. The total is 39 and because of the fact that they’re playing on a short week, I don’t see this 49ers offense being able to put up more than 21-24, especially because they won’t need to. Under 39.5 is the play in this spot.
NFL Pick: Under 39.5 (-110) at BetMGM
Philadelphia Eagles vs. Arizona Cardinals
Sunday, October 09, 2022 – 04:25 PM EDT at State Farm Stadium
Arizona Can Keep Things Close
The Arizona Cardinals got a win last week which kept them within striking distance in the NFC South. That said, they would be the first to admit that they have been underperforming so far this season.
They come into this game against the Philadelphia Eagles as +.5.5 point home dogs. The Eagles are easily one of the NFC’s best teams so getting a win will be really tough here.
That said, I think that it’s too many points on the road for the Eagles. While the Eagles have been dominating games to start the year, their strength of schedule has been pretty poor.
The Cardinals have enough talent that they can keep things within striking distance at home. They’ve already lost their first two home games and it’s hard to imagine them going down without a fight in a game they need to win. I’m taking the +5.5 points with Arizona in this one.
NFL Pick: Cardinals +5.5 (-110) at FanDuel
Atlanta Falcons vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Sunday, October 09, 2022 – 01:00 PM EDT at Raymond James Stadium
Falcons Can Hang Around With Bucs
Clearly, the Tampa Bay Bucs are the better team in their matchup with the Atlanta Falcons. What’s also clear is that the Bucs are not quite the same as we’ve come to expect.
The line for this game is Bucs -9 with the total at 47.5. This is a bit disrespectful to the Falcons who have been very competitive to start the year.
Atlanta has proven that they can move the ball and put up points. We know the Bucs can too but it has not looked consistent at all.
With nothing to lose, I think Atlanta will bring out all the tricks in their playbook. Their rushing attack has masked Marcus Mariotta’s deficiencies. I think the Bucs win here but won’t cover the spread.
NFL Pick: Falcons +9 ( -110) at BetMGM
Las Vegas Raiders vs. Kansas City
Monday, October 10, 2022 – 08:15 PM EDT at Arrowhead Stadium
Raiders Are Not a Good Team
The Raiders might have gotten a win last week but if you watched the game, Denver shot themselves in the foot and opened the door for Las Vegas to pull away. Kansas City will not be as generous and I don’t think the Raiders’ offense can do enough to keep up with the Chiefs. After all, that’s the name of the game against Kansas City, keeping up.
If you think you’re going to rely on your defense to shut them down, that’s a tough proposition. The Raiders’ defense has not been great with their pass rush starting way off the pace they set last year.
The line for this game opened at -4.5 and has been bet all the way up to -7 with the total at 51.
The Chiefs will only be playing their second home game of the season and the atmosphere in Arrowhead stadium will be electric against the much-hated Raiders.
I think the Chiefs looked a lot closer to their old selves against the Bucs last week when they put up 41 on the road. I see them beating the Raiders by double digits here and covering the spread at the best sportsbooks.
NFL Pick: Chiefs -7 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook