NFL Week 4 Upset Alert: Consider the Jets and Seahawks a Threat

Another week, another profitable pair of NFL picks for our Upset Alert – thanks to the Jacksonville Jaguars.

They were clearly the better team in last Sunday’s 38-10 win over the Los Angeles Chargers, cashing in as high as +240 at the close. That more than makes up for the Houston Texans (+155) falling just a bit short in their 23-20 loss to the Chicago Bears.

Let’s see if we can keep the momentum going in Week 4; we’re going to ride with the New York Jets again, and we’re also going to put our faith in a certain team from the Pacific Northwest that has already made some noise this year.

New York Jets vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Sunday, October 02, 2022 – 01:00 PM EDT at Acrisure Stadium

Steelers in Trouble

The 1-2 Jets made us look good in Week 2, coming back to defeat the Cleveland Browns 31-30 as +240 road dogs on the NFL odds board at MaximBet. They’ve got another beatable AFC North team coming up in the 1-2 Steelers, who haven’t won since LB T.J. Watt (pectoral) was knocked out of the lineup in their season-opener.

That’s not the only bad news for the Steelers’ defense. Free safety Minkah Fitzpatrick was placed in league protocol after last Thursday’s 29-17 loss to the Browns; he’s Pittsburgh’s best defensive player with Watt on the shelf. Whatever concussion Fitzpatrick suffered might clear up in time after that extended rest break – or maybe not.

Why Are the Jets Valuable?

Meanwhile, Jets QB Joe Flacco has performed at roughly the same level as Steelers QB Mitch Trubisky, according to the passing DVOA charts at Football Outsiders.

They’re still both a bit below replacement level, but it shows how close these two teams are on paper.

NFL Pick: Jets (+160) at SBK

Seattle Seahawks vs. Detroit Lions

Sunday, October 02, 2022 – 01:00 PM EDT at Ford Field

QB Advantage

Everyone expected Seattle to take a step back this year after trading Russell Wilson to the Denver Broncos. Indeed, the Seahawks are 1-2 heading into Week 4, but it’s not because of QB Geno Smith. He’s No. 11 on the passing DVOA charts at Football Outsiders, well ahead of Wilson at No. 18.

Smith is also one spot ahead of Lions QB Jared Goff. Again, the former Pro Bowler is currently outperforming the man he replaced last year, Matthew Stafford (No. 20 overall), even if Stafford was good enough to lead the Los Angeles Rams to glory at Super Bowl LVI.

Why Are the Seahawks Valuable?

Despite Goff looking more comfortable under center, the Lions are still 1-2. Defense has been a sticking point for both these clubs, leaving Detroit at No. 13 overall on the team DVOA charts and Seattle at No. 21.

That’s close enough for at least a small wager on the Seahawks at these NFL odds – especially if WR Amon-Ra St. Brown (ankle) joins RB D’Andre Swift (shoulder) and safety Tracy Walker (Achilles) on the Lions injured list after missing Wednesday’s practice.

NFL Pick: Seahawks (+185) at SugarHouse