NFL Week 3 Upset Alert: Backing the Jaguars and Texans as Underdogs

The Jacksonville Jaguars are a solid moneyline pick on the Week 3 NFL odds board – but the Houston Texans might be even better. 

It had to happen sometime. The New Orleans Saints came up short last week against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, leaving our Upset Alert NFL picks at 1-1 for Week 2, and 3-1 on the season.

But the New York Jets (+220 at the close) still made it a profitable week by coming back to beat the Cleveland Browns. 
 
If you had the intestinal fortitude to bet on the J-E-T-S, taking either of our two recommended underdogs on the Week 3 NFL odds board will seem tame by comparison.


Houston Texans vs. Chicago Bears

Sunday, September 25, 2022 – 01:00 PM EDT at Soldier Field


That’s assuming the Texans (0-1-1 SU, 2-0 ATS) are still on the underdog side of the ledger. They’re +136 at SBK as we go to press, but they could conceivably flip to favorites before kick-off. The consensus reports at OddsTrader show 99% support for Houston.

Having said that, the Texans aren’t a public team by any means, and there are still enough people out there in Chicagoland and elsewhere who will bet on Da Bears (1-1 SU and ATS) without thinking about it too much. Mmmmm… Polish sausage.

That makes it more likely that Houston will become even bigger dogs as we get closer to kick-off. But they still have value at this price.

The Texans are No. 21 on the Week 2 DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) charts at Football Outsiders, well ahead of the Bears at No. 30.

Texans vs. Bears: Our Betting Pick

Houston also has a relatively high floor with Davis Mills at quarterback. He’s not going to win MVP honors anytime soon, but Mills has enough “game management” in him to minimize costly mistakes.

The same can’t be said for Bears QB Justin Fields, at least not at this point in his development.

NFL Pick: Texans ML (+136) at SBK


Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Los Angeles Chargers

Sunday, September 25, 2022 – 04:05 PM EDT at SoFi Stadium


Has Trevor Lawrence already arrived? We knew his trajectory was likely to ascend under new head coach Doug Pederson.

Lawrence and the Jaguars are only 1-1 SU and ATS after two games, but the analytics say the former college champion at Clemson has played like a Pro Bowler.

Lawrence even finds himself slightly ahead of highly-regarded Chargers QB Justin Herbert in almost every advanced stat category – including QBR, where Lawrence has posted a 73.1 for Jacksonville through two games, and Herbert a 70.6 for Los Angeles (1-1 SU, 2-0 ATS). That’s fifth and eighth in the league, respectively.

Jaguars vs. Chargers: Our Betting Pick

It isn’t just Lawrence, though. Everything about the Jaguars is better now that Pederson is in charge – as it should be.

Urban Meyer was a complete disaster as an NFL head coach, while Pederson led the Philadelphia Eagles to victory at Super Bowl XXXI. Bet accordingly.

NFL Pick: Jaguars ML (+265) at SugarHouse