It’s the week before Thanksgiving, and several of the less fortunate teams around the NFL may have something to be thankful for when they sit down for their holiday meal on Thursday. That’s because the Week 11 schedule around the league looks to be packed with potential upsets.
Here’s a look at which favored teams at the NFL odds need to make doubly sure not to start taking their holiday time off too early, or they may be served up with surprise losses as we head into feast week.
On the other hand, if you are able to navigate the minefield of potential trap games successfully, you could be well into the black by the time we reach Black Friday.
Cleveland Browns vs. Buffalo Bills
Sunday, November 20, 2022 – 01:00 PM EST at Ford Field
Why the Bills Will Lose
This was a home game for the Buffalo Bills until Thursday of this week. Then, with six feet of snow in the forecast for the weekend, the NFL moved the game to Detroit. That should make life easier for the teams traveling to the game, but it also means they’ll be playing in a near-empty dome.
The move robs the Bills of two of their biggest late November advantages: the home field in what would have been one of the wildest weather games ever, and the rabid home crowd willing to brave the elements. Instead, they’ll play on a sterile neutral field after spending several days worrying about travel plans and battling snowmageddon to get to Detroit.
Aside from the new location, the Bills have a two-game losing streak to worry about. Buffalo has struggled against the run in recent weeks, which could be a problem with Nick Chubb ready to carry the load for the Browns.
With bad weather comes sickness, and the Bills had to change practice plans on Wednesday because five players were out with illness—a situation that could get worse before it gets better. It’s the perfect storm of distractions for the Bills. Keep it in mind for your NFL picks.
NFL Pick: Browns ML (+260 at FanDuel
Philadelphia Eagles vs. Indianapolis Colts
Sunday, November 20, 2022 – 01:00 PM EST at Lucas Oil Stadium
Why the Eagles Will Lose
The Eagles are coming off their first loss of the season, a shocking home upset at the hands of Washington on Monday night. Now they head to Indianapolis on short rest.
The Colts scored 26 points in a road win at Las Vegas last weekend, nearly matching their points total from the three previous games (29).
Jonathan Taylor appears to be recovered from a nagging ankle injury that he’s been battling much of the season. He turned in his first 100-yard rushing game since opening day against the Raiders on Sunday and also scored his first rushing touchdown since Week 1.
Meanwhile, the Eagles have allowed more than 150 rushing yards a week in each of the last two games and signed a pair of defensive linemen off the street this week to try to shore up the problem.
NFL Pick: Colts ML (+245) at FanDuel
New York Jets vs. New England Patriots
Sunday, November 20, 2022 – 01:00 PM EST at Gillette Stadium
These two AFC East rivals meet for the second time in three games. Both the Jets and Pats are coming off of a bye, and New England is looking to sweep the series, after winning the first game in the Big Apple, 22-17.
The first game with the Patriots was the only one in the last six that the Jets have lost. New York also won ATS in those five games.
This game promises to be a low-scoring defensive battle. Both New England and New York feature strong defenses. The Jets have held five of the last six foes to 20 or fewer points, while the Patriots have done the same to four of the last five.
New England has a game on Thanksgiving Day, followed by a Week 13 matchup against the Bills, so, even though they’re coming off the bye, the Patriots could step into a trap in this home game.
NFL Pick: Jets ML (+148) at FanDuel