NFL Week 11 Top Betting Picks: Can We Trust Minnesota at Home vs. Dallas?

The NFL playoff race is starting to shape up as we head into the second half of the NFL season. Here are three bets to consider making for Week 11, before the games on Sunday.

New York Jets vs. New England Patriots

Sunday, November 20, 2022 – 01:00 PM EST at Gillette Stadium

The New York Jets were exposed in their loss to the Patriots in late October. Or so we thought.

The Jets came right back and defeated the Buffalo Bills, 20-17 on their home field.

Now they’re rested up after a bye week and ready to take on the challenge of defeating the New England Patriots once and for all.

New York’s Defense

Both teams have won four of their last five games. But the Jets’ defense is what sets them apart from other teams. The Jets have looked sensational in coverage and continue to do a good job against the run, holding teams to 110.9 yards per game on the ground this season.

New York has also averaged more yards per game on offense this year, earning over 350 yards. Both teams have had their starting quarterbacks injured for multiple games so that doesn’t really need to be brought up.

Zach Wilson made a bunch of terrible mistakes against New England. He threw interceptions that were certainly avoidable. Look for him to make better decisions with the ball against the Patriots.

If the Jets limit turnovers, the Jets will win this game. The defense is terrific. The pass rush is demoralizing. But the Jets can’t give the Patriots an easy field position to work with.

Take the Jets with the three points.

NFL Pick: Jets +3 (-105) at BetMGM

Washington Commanders vs. Houston Texans

Sunday, November 20, 2022 – 01:00 PM EST at NRG Stadium

The Washington Commanders are only 5-5 on the season but just defeated the Philadelphia Eagles on primetime, Monday Night Football.

Now they’ll take on the Houston Texans, who have won one game. Yet, the Commanders are just three-point favorites in this game.

Taylor Heinicke has won the Commanders over with his quarterback play. The Commanders have kept every game since Week 5 close. Each game has been decided by one possession, despite winning or losing.

But now the Commanders get to face one of the worst teams in the NFL.

Houston’s Lineup

The Texans are only good rushing the football with Dameon Pierce. He’s rushed for 772 yards with three touchdowns on 165 attempts. Other than that, the production is weak for the Texans.

On defense, Houston has been absolutely terrible against the run, and they haven’t been much better in coverage. The missed tackles are also really bad.

What About Washington?

Meanwhile, Washington’s starting to find its identity. The offense is starting to come together and the defense is also getting healthier.

Let’s back the Commanders at -3.

NFL Pick: Commanders -3 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook

Dallas Cowboys vs. Minnesota Vikings

Sunday, November 20, 2022 – 4:25 PM EST at US Bank Stadium

The Minnesota Vikings are coming off a huge win against the Buffalo Bills in overtime. They needed multiple miracles to get the win, but still found a way.

Yes, we can call it a lucky win. Justin Jefferson made an insane catch on fourth down. Josh Allen made a crucial mistake around the team’s goal line, fumbling the football in the end zone.

But the Vikings never lost faith. They never gave up. They kept playing and found a way to win. Now they’re 8-1 on the season going up against a Dallas team that just lost to the Green Bay Packers.

The Packers ran the football nearly two-thirds of the game because of Rodgers’ hand injury. Yet, Green Bay still found a way to beat Dallas after losing five straight games.

A Trap Game?

Many people will call this game a trap game. Don’t read into that. There’s no such thing.

The Vikings are the home team against a Cowboys defense that couldn’t get stops against the Packers.

Every other team in the NFL was able to get stops against them when they needed to.

Minnesota hasn’t been effective in coverage defensively, but the rest of the defense has shown out. The run defense is close to elite and the pass rush has been effective too.

Of course, the offense runs on Justin Jefferson. But Dalvin Cook should be able to have a big game if the Vikings commit to the run early. The Packers dominate the Dallas defense in the run game and the Vikings can now do the same. That would open up the passing game too.

The Cowboys’ Defense

Meanwhile, Dallas’ offense has Dak Prescott back. They’ve scored at least 24 points in each of their last three games. But Dallas’ defense played better when the game was managed by Cooper Rush. Rush didn’t do much on offense but he was able to at least get the clock moving and create long drives.

That’s not happening in Dallas and is one of the reasons why the Cowboys’ defense has struggled recently.

I’m backing the Vikings at home and taking the points.

NFL Pick: Vikings +1.5 (-110) at BetMGM