NFL Week 10 Top Betting Picks: Live Dog in NFC West and AFC East Leaders Look Good

geno smith seattle seahawks qb nfl.jpg
Geno Smith #7 of the Seattle Seahawks signals from the line of scrimmage during the fourth quarter of the game against the Arizona Cardinals. Norm Hall/Getty Images/AFP

The red-hot Seattle Seahawks have value as road dogs in Tampa Bay. The Buffalo Bills opened the week as more than a touchdown favorite, but that line has been steamed down so much that they might be worth a look.

Finally, we’ve got the Miami Dolphins hosting the struggling Cleveland Browns, who are desperate for a win here.

Seattle Seahawks vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Sunday, November 13, 2022 – 09:30 AM EST at Allianz Arena

Seahawks Are For Real

It’s hard to pinpoint one specific reason that the Seahawks are playing so well. Gino Smith has finally found a home as a starter after several years as a backup. It’s still early, but the Seahawks might actually have the best draft class this season.

Running back Kenneth Walker III has to be in the conversation for Offensive Rookie of the Year. Their starting left and right tackle are two rookies that have started every game and looked really good doing so.

Whatever is going on, it’s working, which is more than you can say for the Tampa Bay Bucs. Even though the Bucs won last week versus the Rams, they’ve hardly looked impressive this season at any point. They really lack balance in their offense with no running game to speak of. They also seem to have a problem with drops, with both Mike Evans and Chris Goodwin guilty this past week. The Bucs are -3 point favorites at BetMGM and I’m not sure why.

I’m very tempted to take the Seahawks on the moneyline to win outright, but I’m not sure about the Germany dynamic. I want to believe that the long travel favors the Seahawks, but that seems like a reach.

What I do know is that on a neutral field, I don’t believe that the Bucs are much better than the Seahawks right now so I’ll be taking the points with Seattle.

NFL Pick: Seahawks +3 (-120) at BetMGM

Minnesota Vikings vs. Buffalo Bills

Sunday, November 13, 2022 – 01:00 PM EST at Highmark Stadium

Buffalo Has Value With Line Move

The line for this game between the Buffalo Bills and Minnesota Vikings opened at -7.5 and has been steamed all the way down to -3.5 at most online sportsbooks. While the Vikings are 7-1, they are not on Buffalo’s level.

One look at their strength of schedule and you’ll quickly see that the Vikings have played some of the league’s worst teams. The one true test they had was against the Eagles in a game where they were blown out 24-7.

Not only do I think the Bills defense can slow down the Vikings, reports seem to indicate that Josh Allen’s status for this game is up in the air with an elbow injury. He hasn’t been practicing all week and there’s a small chance that Case Keenum could play. Even if Allen starts, he clearly won’t be at his best.

The under has moved all the way down to 43.5 after opening at 49. Even with Allen healthy, the Bills are only 1-7 to the over.

NFL Pick: Under 43.5 (-110) at BetMGM

Cleveland Browns vs. Miami Dolphins

Sunday, November 13, 2022 – 1:00 PM EST at Hard Rock Stadium

Dolphins Trying to Keep Up With Bills

While the Bills were seen as preseason Superbowl contenders, the Miami Dolphins were hoping to continue to build on two consecutive seasons with a winning record. They’ve done more than that as they are within striking distance of Buffalo, who they’ve already beat this season. They will host the Cleveland Browns as -3.5 point favorites.

The Browns will be desperate for a win as well, but don’t have the horses to keep up with this Dolphins offense. Both of these teams struggle on defense, but Cleveland is a team built on the run game. With the way Tua Tagovailoa and this offense are clicking right now, it’s going to be really hard to beat this Miami team without a reliable passing game.

As well as Jacoby Brissett has played this season, he can’t do enough with his arm to keep up with this Dolphins team. On top of that, this Browns defense has not played well this season. I’m playing the -3.5 (-110) at FanDuel.

NFL Pick: Dolphins -3.5 (-110) at FanDuel