NFL MVP Odds 2022: Patrick Mahomes Headlines

Patrick Mahomes #15 of the Kansas City Chiefs signals for a two-point conversion. Chris Graythen/Getty Images/AFP

The 2021-2022 NFL season was only just put to bed, but sportsbooks are already looking ahead. Super Bowl LVII odds were among the first to hit the market, but other preliminary odds markets were quick to follow. One of these is the 2022 NFL MVP odds market.

Who are the favorites to win the coveted award, and are there any outside bets worth considering for your early NFL picks? These are the questions we delve into below.

Betting on the 2022-23 MVP is well underway with multiple top-rated sportsbooks rolling out a swash of preliminary odds for bettors to sink their teeth into.

Patrick Mahomes has headlined the MVP market ever since he won his first regular-season MVP award in 2018. For the fourth year running, the Kansas City Chiefs quarterback is setting the standard in the league according to oddsmakers, almost unanimously opening as the top favorite to win the coveted award across sports betting sites.

Depending on the sportsbooks, though, Mahomes is either the sole favorite or co-favorite with either two-time MVP winner Aaron Rodgers or Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen.

BetMGM tips Mahomes at +700 alongside Aaron Rodgers, but PointsBet tips Mahomes at +650 and Rodgers at +800, who is co-favored with Allen at this sportsbook. DraftKings has Mahomes co-favored with Allen at +750 while Rodgers is tipped at +800.

Clearly shopping around for the best odds can make a difference when placing your bets. For the purpose of this column, which is to review the contenders as they currently stand, the odds from PointsBet will be used as a point of reference from here onwards.

The Top Three Favorites

With Tom Brady hanging up his cleats, Patrick Mahomes, Aaron Rodgers, and Josh Allen are the three best quarterbacks in the league right now. So, it makes sense that they would be the top favorites at the sportsbook exchange. Moreover, betting on one to emerge from this triplet isn’t a bad idea as the probability of winning the award is high in each of their cases, never mind the odds are attractive too.

Patrick Mahomes +650

Patrick Mahomes’ first two years in the NFL saw him win back-to-back MVP awards: the 2018 regular season MVP award and then the 2019 Super Bowl MVP award. Although Mahomes has missed the mark in the last two years, he remains the player to beat in the market.

Mahomes led the Chiefs to a 12-5 record in 2021 to clinch a fourth straight AFC West title during his reign. He finished fourth overall among his peers in total passing yards with 4,839 all the while tossing for 37 touchdowns and 13 interceptions. In the playoffs, Mahomes went for 1,057 yards, 11 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions.

Aaron Rodgers +800

Aaron Rodgers won a second straight MVP award after leading the Green Bay Packers to a 13-4 record on the season and a third straight NFC North title under head coach Matt LaFleur. Rodgers finished 10th overall among his peers with 4,115 passing yards, 37 touchdowns, and 4 interceptions.

Rodgers’ future with the Packers was always going to be held in the balance of his performance this season since he renegotiated terms with the franchise ahead of the 2021 season. The fact that the Packers crashed out of the playoffs in the Divisional Round, losing to the San Francisco 49ers, is something that can’t be overlooked. How it impacts Rodgers’ position in Green Bay remains to be seen. This uncertainty makes Rodgers more of a longshot to win the MVP than the NFL odds would suggest.

Josh Allen +800

Josh Allen had a standout season in many respects. He went for 4,407 yards, 36 touchdowns, and 15 interceptions. For the first time in his career, he got the measure of Patrick Mahomes when the Bills defeated the Kansas City Chiefs 38-20 at Arrowhead Stadium. However, he lost the most important game between the pair in the Divisional Round of the playoffs. The Bills were eliminated by the Chiefs in overtime, 42-36. Allen was faultless as he threw for 329 yards and 4 touchdowns with no interceptions, but he still came up short.

Despite the heartbreaking end to Buffalo’s 2021 campaign, Allen is clearly on an upward trajectory and it’s only a matter of time before he wins a regular-season MVP or, perhaps even, the Lombardi Trophy.

The Contenders

After the aforementioned triplet, a swash of quarterbacks emerge as legitimate contenders, including Joe Burrow and Matthew Stafford after the pair dueled in Super Bowl LVI. Interestingly, Burrow has better odds than Stafford at the moment. In fact, so does Los Angeles Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert, who nudges ahead of Stafford on the NFL odds board.

  • Joe Burrow +1200
  • Justin Herbert +1400
  • Matthew Stafford +1500
  • Derrick Henry +1800

Justin Herbert is an interesting prospect in this group. His sophomore season was something to behold as he finished second behind Tom Brady with 5,014 passing yards, 38 touchdowns, and 15 interceptions. If there’s a top bet in this mix, it would be Herbert hands down.

The only non-quarterback in this mix is running back Derrick Henry. The Tennessee Titans star was on a furious pace before a season-ending ankle injury derailed him in 2021.

It’s worth noting, however, that running backs don’t often win this coveted award. So, although Henry’s start to 2021 certainly elevated him into the conversation, he was always going to be a longshot to win. It’s hard to see that changing next season.

The Pretenders

  • Dak Prescott +2000
  • Lamar Jackson +2000
  • Kyler Murray +2500
  • Cooper Kupp +2500
  • Russell Wilson +3000
  • Jonathan Taylor +3000

A star-studded cast is lumped into this group of MVP hopefuls, including 2019 MVP winner Lamar Jackson. The Baltimore Ravens quarterback is tipped at +2000 alongside Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott. Jackson struggled this season with injuries that limited his playing time. Prescott had a statistically sound season with 4,449 passing yards, 37 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions. However, the Cowboys struggled against the better teams in the league and fell flat in the playoffs.

Kyler Murray is priced at +2500, but recent reports have raised questions about the fourth-year quarterback and his relationship with the Arizona Cardinals. Another quarterback whose future looks uncertain is Russell Wilson, who is priced at +3000. Wilson is coming off a tough season with the Seahawks and rumors about a possible trade surround the veteran quarterback. This kind of uncertainty doesn’t make either of these quarterbacks a good bet right now.

Los Angeles Rams wide receiver Cooper Kupp is flush of winning the Super Bowl MVP and he is priced at +2500 in this market. What Kupp accomplished in 2021 and in Super Bowl LVI was outstanding. The likelihood he would replicate those performances next season however is slim at best.

Finally, Indianapolis Colts running back Jonathan Taylor rounds out the list of hopefuls to win the MVP next season at +3000. But just like Titans running back Henry, Taylor’s chances to win the MVP are negligible.

For a complete list of the MVP odds, check the NFL odds board.