NFL Free Pick: Rams at Bills

Both the St. Louis Rams and the Buffalo Bills will look to keep their slim playoff hopes alive with a win this Sunday when the two clash in an inter-conference matchup at Ralph Wilson Stadium. The game is slated to get underway at 1 p.m. (ET) and it will be available locally on FOX.

The Rams kept themselves in the NFC postseason discussion with a stunning 16-13 overtime victory over San Francisco this past Sunday as seven-point road underdogs. The win boosted their overall record to 5-6-1 straight up and a profitable 8-4 against the spread. The total has gone “over” in four of their last five games.

Buffalo is still hanging around in the AFC at 5-7 SU (6-6 ATS) after this past Sunday’s 34-18 romp over Jacksonville as a six-point home favorite. The total went over the 41-point line, but it had stayed “under” in three of its previous four games. The Bills are 3-2 SU in five home games this season

St. Louis vs. Buffalo Betting Storylines

St. Louis continues to find ways to win games despite having an offense that is ranked 28th in the NFL in points per game and 25th in total yards. It has not scored more than 20 points in eight of its first 12 games this season and has averaged 19.6 points in five games on the road. Sam Bradford has passed for 2,668 yards and 14 touchdowns, but he has been picked off nine times while competing just 60.8 percent of his throws. Injuries to Steven Jackson have taken the bite out of the Rams rushing attack, which is averaging 115.1 yards a game.

The reason that the Rams have managed to win five games this season is a defense that has remained effective against both the pass and the run this year. It is ranked 12th in the NFL in total yards allowed and 17th in points allowed in giving up an average of 22.2 points a game.

Buffalo is another team that has had major struggles with consistency on the offensive side of the ball. Quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick has a slightly better completion percentage at 61.1, but he has thrown for only 2,471 yards on an offense that is ranked 26th in the league in passing yards per game. He has also tossed 12 interceptions against 20 touchdowns. One injury concern for this Sunday could be wide receiver Stevie Johnson, who reportedly tweaked his hamstring in Sunday win over the Jaguars. The Bills still have a decent rushing attack behind CJ Spiller and Fred Jackson that is averaging 147.9 yards a game.

Defensively, Buffalo has had its fair share of problems stopping the run this season as it is giving up an average of 139.2 yards a game. It is ranked 24th in the league in total yards allowed and 29th in scoring by allowing an average of 28.1 points a game.

St. Louis vs. Buffalo Betting Odds and Trends
Pointspread: Buffalo -3
Total Line: 42

The Rams are 1-6-1 SU in their last eight games on the road and 5-10 ATS in their last 15 road games. The total has stayed under in 11 of their last 16 games on the road.

The Bills are 4-2 SU in their last six home games but just 6-15 SU in their last 21 games overall. The total has gone over in six of their last seven home games.

While these two teams do not play one another too often, Buffalo has won five of the last six meetings SU overall and four of the last five games SU that were played at home. The total has gone over in the last five meetings

NFL Picks: St. Louis vs. Buffalo Betting Predictions

This is a matchup of two pretty similar teams. And while you would have to give the edge on defense to the Rams, they have not been a good road team to wager on. The weather in Buffalo is starting to turn cold, which is an added edge for the Bills, especially considering they are playing a dome team. Give the three points and stick with the home team all the way in this one.

Take #122 Buffalo (-3) over St. Louis (Sunday, Dec. 9, 1 p.m. FOX)

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