The New England Patriots are tied with the Cowboys for the best record in the league at 11-2 and will look to add on to that record when they battle the slumping Denver Broncos Sunday at Mile Hile. Denver has lost last three of five games. This is a rematch of last year’s AFC Championship game of which the Broncos won 20-18. Patriots are a FG favorite.
Vegas odds have the Patriots listed as 3 point favorites, while the total has been set at 43.5. This contest will be televised on CBS with a start time of 4:25 pm EST.
Breaking Down The New England Patriots
The New England Patriots are again among the elite in the league. They are at 11-2 so far and have overcome missing Brady for the first 4 games of the year and now they have a depleted WR corps and are missing Rob Gronkowski for the rest of the year. Yet they keep on winning. They have won their last four games in a row and are now seeking revenge for a 20-18 loss in the AFC Title game back in January of their year. They have a shot at taking this game because of Brady and an improved defense, plus the fact that the Broncos have been less than average of late. Brady has had a great season so far and he leads all QBs with a QBR of 113.6. He has thrown 22 TD passes this year to just 2 INTs. Just amazing. He leads an offense that ranks 4th in total yards, 4th in passing, 7th in rushing and 5th in scoring, putting up 26.8 ppg. That run game could come in very handy vs a Denver team that has struggled vs the run. The Pats are not all about offense this year as they can play some defense as well. They come in ranked 9th in total yards allowed, 15th vs the pass, 6th vs the run and 2nd in points allowed, giving up just 17.7 ppg. They will have a chance for a good showing in this one vs a less than stellar Denver offense.
Trends: The Patriots have gone 13-3-2 ATS in their last 18 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game and 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game, but the road team is 0-7 ATS the last 7 games in this series. The Over is 7-0 in their last 7 games when playing on Sunday following a Monday night game, while the Under is 7-1 in their last 8 road games.
Breaking Down The Denver Broncos
The Denver Broncos had a solid start to their year, but they are sliding of late as they have lost 3 of their last 5 games. They are now 8-5 on the year and on the outside looking in as far as a wildcard slot goes. This is just not the same team they were last year. Their defense has struggled vs the run and their offense has been played with inconsistency thanks to not having Peyton Manning running the show. Trevor Siemian hasn’t been horrible as he has thrown for 16 TDs and just seven INTs, while posting a QBR of 89.7, but he also isn’t a good clutch QB with the ability to drive his team down for the winning score when they need it. He also could use help from a struggling rung game, which was a big part of their offense last year. The Broncos come in ranked 25th in total offense, 19th in passing, 27th in rushing and 16th in scoring, putting up 22.28 ppg on the year so far. On defense they have been very solid vs the pass, but have struggled vs the run and if the Pats get that ground game going then the Broncos will have a tough time stopping the pass. Denver comes in ranked 3rd in total yards allowed, 1st vs the pass, 29th vs the run and 6th in points allowed, giving up just 18.6 ppg. This one should be fun.
Trends: The Broncos have gone 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game and 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 games following a ATS loss, but just 6-13 ATS in their last 19 games in Week 15 and 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game. The Over is 14-5 in their last 19 games in Week 15, while the Under is 5-1 in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
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