NCAAF Week 5 Best Bets: Kentucky and Baylor Among Our Top Picks

Barion Brown Kentucky Wildcats Northern Illinois Huskies
Barion Brown #2 of the Kentucky Wildcats celebrates with teammates after a touchdown against the Northern Illinois Huskies. Michael Hickey/Getty Images/AFP.

Top 25 tussles are all over the NCAA football betting schedule this week, and we’re looking for the value in a couple of those contests taking place in the SEC and Big 12.

Kentucky Wildcats vs. Mississippi Rebels

Saturday, October 01, 2022 – 12:00 PM EDT at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium

There are five collisions between ranked teams on the Week 5 college football odds board, including two in the Southeastern Conference where the Ole Miss Rebels host one of those games against the Kentucky Wildcats.

This clash is doubly important for the Rebels who can ill-afford to drop a second conference game and expect to contend in the tough SEC West Division, and it’s no less crucial to the Wildcats who need to keep pace with top-ranked Georgia in the East Division.

UK Rises to 7th in AP Poll

Kentucky moved up a notch to No. 7 in the latest ap rankings following a win over Northern Illinois of the MAC last weekend, a 31-23 decision that might have caught the Wildcats looking ahead to this matchup since they never came close to covering the 27½-point spread at the college football odds.

Head coach Mark Stoops noted his team played “terribly inconsistent” on the defensive side of the ball where the Huskies scored a season-high 23 against the Wildcats, and minus three long touchdown throws by Will Levis, There weren’t many offensive highlights either.

Rebels 6th in Nation in Scoring Defense

Lane Kiffin’s Rebels also moved up in the polls – 14th in the AP, 11th in coaches – and just like the Wildcats, might not have taken their most recent opponent seriously following a 35-27 win over Tulsa as 21-point favorites at the top sportsbooks.

The Golden Hurricane managed to score more than twice as many points as Ole Miss allowed in their first three games combined, but the Rebels are still among the country’s top teams ranking sixth in points allowed (10.0 PPG) and tied for 11th with 13 sacks on the season.

1st Meeting in Oxford Since 2010

Kentucky and Ole Miss are sporadic combatants in the SEC, with Saturday just the third meeting in 11 seasons and the first to take place at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium since 2010.

The Rebels have won the last two meetings and lead the rivalry 28-14-1.

The Pick

It should be a beautiful day for a football game in Oxford where the Rebels are favored by 6½ with 54½ for the total. Ole Miss fans may not find it so beautiful at the end of the game when Kentucky has scored a straight-up victory.

NCAAF Pick: Kentucky ML (+210) at PoitnsBet

Oklahoma State Cowboys vs. Baylor Bears

Saturday, October 01, 2022 – 03:30 PM EDT at McLane Stadium

All eyes in the Big 12 are on the ranked matchup in Waco where the Baylor Bears entertain the Oklahoma State Cowboys in a contest that could ultimately determine a spot in the Conference Championship Game come December.

Bears Favored for 1st Time Since 2016

Baylor went out as a 1½-point favorite, and that spread has increased slightly to -2½ at most shops like PointsBet.

Scoreboard bettors are faced with a decision on a 56½-point total that is up a point since the opener.

Big 12 Opener for Okie State

Mike Gundy’s gang had last week off, and the extra rest may have been a good thing for wide receiver Jaden Bray who missed the Cowboys’ first three games due to an arm injury. The sophomore is listed as probable for this one.

Oklahoma State starters barely broke a sweat in their Week 3 rout of Arkansas-Pine Bluff, a 63-7 laugher that saw quarterbacks Spencer Sanders and Gunnar Gundy combine for 6 touchdown passes.

Baylor 9th in Country in Run Defense

David Aranda and the Bears began their defense of the Big 12 title with a tough road trip to begin the conference schedule, and they returned home from the trip to Iowa State with a 31-24 dubya as small underdogs.

Baylor built a 17-point cushion thanks in part to limiting the Cyclones to just 66 yards on the ground and coming away with 2 interceptions, one of those directly leading to a touchdown for the Bears.

Rematch of 2021 Big 12 Title Tilt

Oklahoma State had its eyes on a potential invite to the 2021 College Football Playoffs when it collided with Baylor in the Big 12 Championship last December, and the Bears dashed those hopes with a 21-16 decision over the Cowboys.

That followed a 24-14 Oklahoma State win during the regular season, the 19th time in 27 meetings as Big 12 foes for the Cowboys to top the Bears, and both contests last season came up short of the totals.

The Pick

Another low-scoring game looks inviting this time around as well, but the best college football pick is on the Bears minus the points as they move to 2-0 in the early Big 12 race.

NCAAF Pick: Baylor -2½ (-107) at PointsBet