You win some, you lose some. Our Week 12 college football picks did a little of both; we cashed in when the Maryland Terrapins (+27.5) lost 43-30 to the Ohio State Buckeyes, but the football gods took it all back when the USC Trojans beat the UCLA Bruins 48-45 (Over 75.5).
Splitting the pot 1-1 is the most common result you’ll get when you pick two games from the NCAAF odds. But in the long run, if you do it right, you’ll finish 2-0 more often than 0-2.
Let’s see if we can nail both of our NCAAF picks as we get ready for the postseason.
Memphis Tigers vs. Southern Methodist Mustangs
Saturday, November 26, 2022 – 03:30 PM EST at Gerald J. Ford Stadium
Do you like football? Do you like nachos? This isn’t much of a rivalry, to be honest, but it is a golden opportunity to hammer the Under with the total set at 69 points at BetMGM. Nice.
Rainy Days and Saturdays
The weather is becoming more and more of a factor as we get deeper into the holidays. It’s supposed to start raining at University Park this Wednesday, and it shouldn’t clear up until sometime Saturday night, which will make life difficult for both offenses in this matchup.
We’re also dealing with what should be an inflated total for Memphis, who have the Over at 8-3 this year. The Tigers are considerably better on offense than defense, although their imbalance isn’t nearly as bad as SMU’s. Despite their lack of stopping power, the Under is actually 6-5 for the Mustangs, and it’s 5-2 in their last seven games against Memphis.
NCAAF Pick: Under 69 (-105) at BetMGM
New Mexico State Aggies vs. Liberty Flames
Saturday, November 26, 2022 – 12:00 PM EST at Williams Stadium
There’s supposed to be light rain in Lynchburg, too, beginning Friday morning and not letting up until early Sunday. That isn’t stopping us from recommending the Over in this contest, although you might want to scale down your bet size for protection.
Can Anyone Score for the Aggies?
New Mexico State has one of the worst offenses in college football, checking in at No. 128 out of 131 teams on the F+ ratings at Football Outsiders. However, the Aggies are pretty bad at defense (No. 108) as well, and while they have the Under at 6-4 on the season, the Over got paid in their last two games.
Liberty (No. 79 offense, No. 35 defense) also have the profile of an Under team, which they are at 6-5, but when these two teams last met in November 2019, it was the Flames prevailing 49-28 (Over 68). Weather aside, they should have little trouble scoring against NMSU this Saturday.
Bet accordingly at the best sportsbooks.
NCAAF Pick: Over 51 (-105) at PointsBet
