This has already been a highly profitable season of college football betting –if you’ve been making the right picks. The Tulane Green Wave, for example, have destroyed the NCAAF odds board this year at 8-1 ATS, just ahead of the Connecticut Huskies at 8-2 ATS. Delightful.
You can also make money with your college football picks by fading the worst teams in the FBS –or at least the most overvalued. That includes the Miami Hurricanes, who are Tulane’s evil twin at 1-8 ATS.
However, past results do not guarantee future returns. Some of those ATS juggernauts will have already peaked in value, while the bottom-dwellers might be good “buy low” opportunities as the regular season draws to a close. We’ll take a closer look at one of each with our latest batch of top picks on the Week 11 college football lines.
Missouri Tigers vs. Tennessee Volunteers
Saturday, November 12, 2022 – 12:00 PM EST at Neyland Stadium
The Volunteers (8-1 SU, 7-2 ATS) were on a big-time roll until they ran into the defending champion Georgia Bulldogs last week. Final score: Tennessee 13, Georgia 27, with the Bulldogs cashing in as 9.5-point home favorites on the odds boards.
That only enhances Tennessee’s betting value going forward. They have a much easier matchup this Saturday with Missouri (4-5 SU, 5-4 ATS), who are coming off a 21-17 loss to the Kentucky Wildcats as 1-point road faves.
The gap in talent between these two teams is considerable. Despite last week’s results, the Vols still rank fifth overall (and third on offense) on the F+ charts at Football Outsiders, well ahead of the Tigers at No. 48.
MaximBet are also making life easier for us by offering Tennessee at -19.5 instead of -20.5. You’ll have to pay an extra four cents in juice, but the premium is worth it to erase that entire point from the spread.
NCAAF Pick: Tennessee -19.5 (-114) at MaximBet
Stanford Cardinal vs. Utah Utes
Saturday, November 12, 2022 – 10:00 PM EST at Rice-Eccles Stadium
On the flip side, the Cardinal (3-6 SU, 2-7 ATS) have been one of the least profitable teams in college football. But they appear to be the sharp side for Saturday’s tilt with Utah (7-2 SU, 5-4 ATS), thanks to the 24 points they’re getting at BetMGM and elsewhere.
Covering big spreads like that isn’t easy in lower-scoring games, and this matchup qualifies, with a total of 53.5 points at press time. Utah’s running game will make it even harder by chewing up the clock; they’re No. 26 in the FBS with 368 rushing attempts, and they’re 1-4 ATS in their last five games when laying at least 24 points with a total below 54. Bet accordingly.
NCAAF Pick: Stanford +24 (-110) at BetMGM
