NCAAF Bowl Weekend Top Betting Picks: Going Under in New Mexico

It’s bowling time once again here at TheRX. The first games of the 2022-23 FBS season kick off this Friday, and there’s plenty of betting value to be had – if you know where to look.

We’ll help out your college football picks with two of the tastiest bets on the NCAAF odds as we go to press.

New Mexico Bowl

SMU Mustangs vs. Brigham Young Cougars

Saturday, December 17, 2022 – 07:30 PM EST at University Stadium

Teams Analysis

This is bowl season, so you know right off the bat that the Under will get a boost in value at the best sportsbooks as all those casual bettors flood the marketplace and hammer the Over. And hammer they will for Saturday’s matchup between the SMU Mustangs (Under 7-5) and BYU Cougars (Over 8-4).

You’d think the Mustangs would make a strong Over bet, with the No. 12-ranked offense and No. 118-ranked defense on the F+ charts at Football Outsiders. But not only have SMU cashed in the Under this year, they also have the Under at 5-1 in their last six bowl games.

Granted, the first four bowls in that streak happened when the Mustangs were still in Conference USA, and June Jones was their head coach. And their most recent bowl snapped the streak when SMU lost 52-28 to Florida Atlantic (Over 63.5) at the 2019 Boca Raton Bowl, with Sonny Dykes under the headset.

The Mustangs have a brand-new head coach now in Rhett Lashlee, but he, like Jones and Dykes before him, is all about the offense. BYU’s Kalani Sitake has plenty of experience on both sides of the ball, although the Cougars (No. 28 offense, No. 109 defense) have their own imbalance that they’ve managed to translate into a profitable Over record.

The Pick

The sharps know their stuff, though. Saturday’s total has already plummeted from 74 at the open to 64.5 at press time, and there’s still enough value there for a chunky bet on the Under.

NCAAF Pick: Under 64.5 (-110) at BetMGM

Duluth Trading Cure Bowl

UTSA Roadrunners vs. Troy Trojans

Friday, December 16, 2022 – 03:00 PM EST at Exploria Stadium

Teams Analysis

There’s some sneaky value on Troy (11-2 SU, 10-3 ATS) in this Cure Bowl battle between two ranked teams from the mid-majors. And it’s mostly due to the Roadrunners (11-2 SU, 7-6 ATS), who have seen their team absolutely torn apart by injuries.

Their key player here is RB Brenden Brady, who is considered questionable at press time after missing UTSA’s Conference USA title game victory over North Texas. TE Gavin Sharp is also iffy at best for Friday.

The Pick

Bet accordingly once you get their status updates, but at press time, it doesn’t look good for either of them to suit up against the Trojans.

NCAAF Pick: Troy -1.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook