The Portland Trail Blazers have been playing pretty solid basketball lately, winning their last three games and five of their last six. Two of those games were tough road contests at Memphis and at Minnesota in which they team won as a 5+ point underdog.
However, this team is not as good as their 19-15 record would indicate. They have actually been outscored by nearly 2 ppg on the year and opponents are shooting 46.3% against them while Portland only connects on 44% of their shots. Plus, I like the fact that Portland is just 3-12 ATS coming off two or more wins in a row the last two seasons.
Miami is a public team and, as such, can be overvalued in a lot of situations, but after failing to cover in six of their last seven, the public is starting to shy away from them. Miami was beat up Tuesday night in Indiana, scoring only 77 points in a game in which we had the UNDER.
Indiana’s defense though is a far cry from what the Heat will face in Portland and the double digit loss should wake this team up. In fact, it puts Miami in an ideal situation – favorites coming off a double digit road loss who are winning more than 60% of their games on the season are 251-181 (58.8%) since 1996.
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