The Golden State Warriors look pretty good. But what are their NBA odds for Thursday’s home game against the New York Knicks?
New York Knicks vs. Golden State Warriors
Thursday, January 21, 2021 – 10:00 PM EST at Chase Center
Looks like the Golden State Warriors (8-6 SU, 7-7 ATS) are ahead of schedule. In the last two weeks, they’ve pulled off some big upsets, beating the Los Angeles Clippers (–6.5 away), Toronto Raptors (–2.5 away) and Los Angeles Lakers (–8.5 at home). Just about everyone on this team has some flaws, but their strengths are aligned, and the Dubs are only going to get better from here. Well, maybe except for Thursday’s game against the New York Knicks. As I write this, Golden State have just put the finishing touches on the San Antonio Spurs, crushing them 121-96 as 1.5-point home faves, but the home commentators are dropping strong hints that Stephen Curry and Draymond Green could use a night off. As for the oddsmakers, they must have seen the writing on the wall, because Thursday’s game has yet to pop up on the NBA lines. What to do?
All we need is just a little patience. There might even be some NBA odds on the board by the time you read this, depending on how the Warriors handle the situation. Let’s assume for now that Curry (plus-0.7 Value Over Replacement Player at Basketball Reference) and Green (0.0 VORP) sit out; that should create a good opportunity for us to ride Golden State, with the betting public likely to over-react to those absences. Granted, the Warriors only went 15-50 SU and 31-34 ATS last year when Curry missed all but the first four games of the season. And they didn’t have Klay Thompson (plus-1.2 VORP two years ago), nor do they now. But this year’s Dubs have more talent and more depth; for example, Andrew Wiggins (0.1 VORP) is showing some 3-and-D maturity, Damion Lee (0.2 VORP) and Eric Paschall (0.2 VORP) are both playing above replacement level, and James Wiseman (minus-0.3 VORP) soon will be if he isn’t already.
Poor Huddled Masses
Thursday would be a pretty good night to take off, too. The Knicks (7-8 SU and ATS) aren’t awful by any means – they’ve pulled off quite a few upsets themselves – but they’re probably the weakest team Golden State have faced all month, and this would be the third game in four nights for Curry and Green. New York’s depth has also been compromised; Austin Rivers (minus-0.2 VORP) is doubtful for Thursday’s game with a sore Achilles, just as Alec Burks (plus-0.2 VORP) was about to return from his sprained ankle.
Don’t worry too much about the difference in VORP between those two players. Assuming he does suit up as expected, this will be the first game back for Burks since December 27, so he’ll probably be rusty – another thing the betting public doesn’t quite appreciate. There are too many unknowns about this game to recommend more than a small wager, regardless of who suits up, but if Curry doesn’t play (Green, we’re not as concerned about), and if the odds look good to you, don’t hesitate to put the Dubs in your NBA picks.
NBA Pick: Warriors If Curry Sits (NBA Odds Pending)