The build-up to next week’s Super Bowl is in full flow and there has been no major team news in the opening week, rather happy talk about a couple of notable firsts.
Next weekend is the first time two siblings have faced each other in a Super Bowl with Travis Kelce (Chiefs) and Jason Kelce (Eagles). Interestingly, both were initially drafted to the NFL by their footballing father Andy Reid. That’s not the only first, as this year sees two black quarterbacks facing off in a Super Bowl final for the first time.
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Sunday, February 12, 2023 – 06:30 PM EST at State Farm Stadium
Betting Odds – Best Prices Available
Moneyline
• Chiefs (+108) at BetRivers
• Eagles (-122) at FanDuel
Spread
• Chiefs +1.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
• Eagles -1.5 (-108) at WynnBet
There have been slight movements in the betting markets for next weekend’s Super Bowl. The spread was set at -2/-2.5 to the Eagles, likely to the Patrick Mahomes injury worry with his ankle and that has shrunk a point to -1.5 in the last seven days.
In an update after their Conference win, Mahomes said, “I was just generally sore from the game, just the general little bit of pain, I had playing with it”.
Total Points
• Over 50.5 (-108) at FanDuel
• Under 50.5 (-108) at WynnBet
Last week, we put up under 49.5 total points in this column and that number has now risen to 50.5, so no need to second guess ourselves, that’s still a good bet for the reasons given.
Which Quarterback Will Prevail?
It’s nothing new for pundits to say, whichever quarterback plays the best, their team will come out on top. But, it’s way more subtle than that, in this particular context more depends on how Patrick Mahomes performs with the underlying ankle issue.
If the Eagles get a chance, the match will be played along the floor in that rough ’em up scenario that they thrive in, knowing it may not suit the Chiefs or Mahomes, who I am sure will get roughed up by the Eagles regardless.
For betting purposes, we have to take for granted that Jalen Hurts will maintain his high standards of the NFL season while it would be a bad time for Mahomes to dip in performance level and there maybe is potential for that to happen this weekend.
Pros and Cons
One factor we can trust is that the Eagles have had the easier passage to the Super Bowl, only facing two quarterbacks ranked in the top 10, all season (Dak Prescott and Jared Goff).
Another unequivocal factor is the Chiefs have faced many of the NFL’s worse defenses, in fact, 66% of them overall (8 from 12) in their campaign.
On different levels, both franchises have had what could be regarded as not the most difficult passages but they are not their Conference No. 1 seeds for no reason, and a fascinating match-up and contrast in style is in the offing.
Super Bowl LVII Picks and Conclusion
Last week, we put up under the total points and this week, we will add the under 25.5 points in the first half with Unibet.
As mentioned last week, we expect a nervy beginning to Super Bowl LVII combined with the Philadelphia Eagles to play a strong rushing game, we have a scrappy tight opening in the offing. Interestingly, 75% of the last twenty Super Bowls with 48 or more points totals have gone under in the first half.
It’s definitely not rocket science, but there are several solid reasons to make this a bet at Super Bowl LVII.
Super Bowl Pick: Under 25.5 Points in the First Half (-130) at Unibet
Super Bowl Props Pick
Should you fancy “pushing the boat” out further, you can combine the bets with the Bet365 Bet Builder option, so take the +150 price with the two bets combined.
Super Bowl Pick: Under 50.5 Points Total + Under 25.5 in the First Half (+150) at Bet365
Final Analysis
No matter, which way we look at this match, we expect a tough match brought to the Chiefs’ door, by the Eagles who will play more along the deck to garner control of the game.
We have slight doubts about Patrick Mahomes and his history of low-scoring beginnings to Super Bowl matches when the spread is so close.
Overall, I like the Eagles to win and the Under for points total. Bet365 have Result and Total in their “main props”. Take the Eagles to win and under 50.5 at +230.
Super Bowl Pick: Philadelphia Eagles + Under 50.5 Points (+230) at Bet365
