The Miami Heat are just two games above .500 late into the season. Can they pull off a road win against the Blazers on Sunday night?
Portland Trail Blazers vs. Miami Heat
Sunday, April 11th, 2021 – 10:00pm EST at Moda Center
The Miami Heat have won four of their last five and will now take on the Trail Blazers on the road who just defeated the Detroit Pistons at home, 118-103. Miami’s offense hasn’t been the best this season. They’re averaging 109.5 points per possession and have an effective field goal percentage of 53.7 percent. Both of those numbers are in the bottom 10 of offensive numbers in the league this year.
On top of that, this team turns the ball over 15 percent of the time and rarely offensive rebound, grabbing just 22.5 percent of rebounds on the offensive end. One area that Miami has been able to do well in is getting to the line but if they’re not hitting shots, they’re not going to win games. That’s been the problem all season long.
Jimmy Butler is averaging 21.6 points per game while Bam Adebayo has scored 19.1 points and 9.5 rebounds per game, to lead in that category. It was supposed to be Tyler Herro’s breakout season but instead he’s scoring just 15.6 points per game and bringing down five rebounds per game and has a PER of 10.93, which is fourth best on the team.
On the defensive side of the ball, the Heat have been much better. They’re holding teams to 110.4 points per 100 possessions and limiting etams to 53.4 percent effective field goal percentage. Both of those numbers are in the top 10 of the league this season.
Miami is second in the NBA in turnover percentage on defense, forcing 15.7 percent per game but haven’t solved their defensive rebounding woes. Portland’s offense is an interesting match-up for the Heat. The Blazers are scoring 118 points per 100 possessions and shoot an effective field goal percentage of 53.9 percent. The Blazers have done well holding onto the ball and limiting turnovers, which is huge because the Heat are terrific at getting takeaways on the defensive end.
The Blazers are led by Damian Lillard who averages 29 points per game along with 7.7 assists per game. This team has CJ McCollum back on the floor and he’s chipping in with 23.7 points per game. They also added Norman Powell from the Raptors who has contributed 16.3 points per game since coming over eight games ago.
Defensively, the Blazers have lacked much focus. They’re allowing 117.7 points per 100 possessions and teams have an effective field goal percentage of 55.8 percent against Portland.
This team has a terrible defense. They’re not forcing many turnovers, they’ve bad on the defensive glass and they put teams to the line at a solid rate. In all five categories, they’re bottom 10 on defense which is why the offense has had to be so dominant.
Prediction
This is a tough match-up for both teams. Portland’s really good offense is going up against Miami’s really good defense. On the other hand, Miami’s poor offense is going up against Portland’s really bad defense.
But there are ways for Miami to score against Portland and Portland will always find a way to score against any team in the league because they’re just so talented on the offensive side of the ball, especially adding Powell to the mix.
I like the over in this match-up and believe the Heat find ways to score, especially being aggressive and getting to the line against Portland.
NBA Pick: Over 221.5 (-110) at Bet 365
