Brooklyn Nets vs. Miami Heat
Sunday, April 18, 2021 – 3:30 PM EST at AmericanAirlines Arena
The Miami Heat have lost three straight games to the Suns, Nuggets, and Timberwolves. They’ll now have to take on one of the best teams in the East in the Brooklyn Nets, at home.
The Heat’s offense has been subpar this season. They’re scoring 109.5 points per 100 possessions and have an effective field goal percentage of 53.7 percent.
The Heat turn the ball over 14.8 percent of the time, which is good for 24th in the league and rarely get offensive rebounds off their misses at just 22.1 percent. They are led by Jimmy Butler who is averaging 21.4 points per game and bringing down 7.2 rebounds along with 7.2 assists per game. Bam Adebayo has contributed 19 points and 9.2 rebounds but outside that, there’s been no consistency.
Tyler Herro averages under 15 points per game after he was supposed to break out as a big offensive weapon. Kendrick Nunn is scoring 13.3 points per game while Duncan Robinson has scored just 13 points per game as well.
Defensively, things are much better. They’re 6th in points per 100 possessions on defense and ninth in effective field goal percentage on defense, allowing teams to have a 53.8 percent effective field goal percentage. The Heat are aggressive and force a heavy dosage of turnovers at 15.9 percent but again, aren’t capable on the glass.
The Nets, on the other hand, will be without James Harden but do have Kevin Durant back in action. The Nets offense hasn’t played at full strength for most of the season but when they do, this team will be hard to stop.
Brooklyn are scoring 119.3 points per 100 possessions and are first in effective field goal percentage at 58.2 percent. They’re limiting turnovers to 13.6 percent per game, and that’s one area they’ll have to focus on doing better in this game.
The Nets have Kyrie Irving who is leading the way with 27.5 points per game and Kevin Durant, who hasn’t played enough games to qualify, but still has 28.1 points per game on the season.
Defensively, Brooklyn have struggled, which is why many Nets games are going over. They are allowing 114 points per possession this season and are allowing an effective field goal percentage of 53.9 percent. They’re also not very good at forcing turnovers at 12.6 percent and don’t do well on the defensive glass, limiting opponents.
However, a match-up against the Heat on the glass should save them from allowing many second chance opportunities.
Both teams are getting to the line at a high rate and both teams are allowing opponents to get to the line at an above average rate compared to the league. So you can likely add some extra points to this game from the line.
Prediction
The Nets are going to be much better with Harden leading the way but let’s not forget that Kevin Durant is back on the floor. The Nets should have no problems scoring points in this one and with the Nets performing so poorly on defense this year, the Heat should be able to match the Nets and score points themselves as well.
The Heat have shown no consistency on offense this season but that doesn’t mean they won’t score in this one.
NBA Pick: Over 222.5 (-110) at Bet365
