Grizzlies vs. Pacers Free NBA Picks for March 15

Chris Duarte #3 of the Indiana Pacers. Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images/AFP

The injury-plagued Indiana Pacers can keep beating the NBA odds this Tuesday when they host the mighty Memphis Grizzlies.

Memphis Grizzlies vs. Indiana Pacers

Tuesday, March 15, 2022 – 07:00 PM EDT at Gainbridge Fieldhouse

It’s one of the biggest dilemmas in sports betting: Do you wait for the morning shoot-around to see who’s playing, or do you pounce on the NBA odds as soon as they hit the board? If you did the former last week when you followed our recommendation and took the Indiana Pacers at +4.5 versus the Cleveland Cavaliers, you got paid when Cleveland prevailed 127-124.

If you waited, you missed out – Indiana was only getting 2.5 points at the close. We’d love to recommend the Pacers (23-46 SU, 31-35-3 ATS) again for Tuesday’s matchup with the Memphis Grizzlies (47-22 SU, 44-25 ATS), with Indiana opening as 7.5-point home dogs on the NBA lines at DraftKings.

This game is going to be even trickier to handicap, though, with so many important players listed as day-to-day for both teams. It might be worth betting early again, though, given who’s on the list.

Ja Wobble

The biggest name here is Grizzlies point guard and team MVP Ja Morant. He’s officially considered doubtful at press time with a sore back; if Morant doesn’t play, the Grizz will lose something like five points in value should Tyus Jones gets the spot start instead.

It’ll be about the same drop-off if those minutes go to De’Anthony Melton, although Melton is the best defender among the three. Memphis will also lose some frontcourt depth if Xavier Tillman (personal) sits out another game – he’s missed the last two, although his minutes were already growing scarce because of his conditioning.

Killian Tillie (sore back) probably won’t move the needle much, either; this is mostly about Morant, and his status for Tuesday doesn’t look too promising for Grizz supporters.

Mad Kings

The main reason we went with Indiana last week is their new-look lineup, which now contains two fewer big men than it did before the trade deadline. Domantas Sabonis is in Sacramento, and Myles Turner (foot) is out indefinitely, leaving the Pacers with a much smaller lineup that’s more suited for the modern NBA.

If only the injury list ended there. Malcolm Brogdon (concussion) and Chris Duarte (toe) are both listed as questionable for Tuesday; both were absent Sunday night when the Pacers fell 131-128 to the Atlanta Hawks, but Indiana still cashed in as 12.5-point road dogs.

Tyrese Haliburton and Buddy Hield each had 25 points for the Pacers, making that Sabonis trade with the Kings looks very smart indeed. Then you have Indiana’s prodigal son, Lance Stephenson.

He didn’t play in Atlanta, either, and is considered questionable for Tuesday because of a sprained ankle, but maybe it’s just as well for us if Stephenson doesn’t play – his performance level has plummeted since those first few amazing games after the first of several 10-day contracts Indiana handed out before signing him for the rest of the season.

If you’re willing to roll the dice on all these question marks, Indiana has plenty of value at this price, but as always, caveat emptor is the smart approach when you’re making your NBA picks.

NBA Pick: Pacers +7.5 (-110) with DraftKings