San Francisco Giants vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Tuesday, June 29, 2021 – 10:10 PM EDT at Dodger Stadium
- Giants: Kevin Gausman (8-1, 1.49 ERA)
- Dodgers: Walker Buehler (7-1, 2.51 ERA)
Stakes of the Matchup
Going into the season, the Los Angeles Dodgers were a heavy favorite to win the NL West, while the San Francisco Giants were one of the biggest longshots. After almost half of the season has been played, The Giants have the best record in MLB, while the Dodgers have the second-best record.
This week, Los Angeles hosts San Francisco in an important divisional series. LA is currently only 2.5 games behind the Giants as they are in the middle of a four-game winning streak. On Monday, the Dodgers won the series opener. For Tuesday’s game, the Dodgers have almost a 58% chance of winning according to the money line odds.
Not only do the Giants and Dodgers have similar records, but both teams have similar strengths. The Dodgers have a starting pitching rotation that is well built around reliable veterans and promising young players. San Francisco’s rotation is built around veterans having the best seasons of their careers.
Both LA and SF have strong lineups as well. The Giants lineup averages 4.92 runs per game which is the 3rd best in the National League while the Dodgers average 5.05 runs per game which is the most in the National League.
What is scary about LA’s Lineup is that they were negatively affected by the absences of former NL MVP 1B Cody Bellinger and IF Max Muncy who is a dark horse NL MVP contender. With both Bellinger and Muncy back in the Dodgers’ lineup, the Dodgers should score even more runs than they have been scoring recently.
For Tuesday night’s game, both teams are relying on strong starting pitchers. Los Angeles is relying on breakout star Walker Buehler who has been the ace of their rotation this season. Opposing Buehler is Kevin Gausman for the Giants who like Buehler is his team’s best starting pitcher.
This season Buehler has an 7-1 record with a 2.51 ERA. However, Buehler also has a 3.73 xFIP meaning he should be allowing 1.22 more runs per nine innings than he is currently allowing. Even though Buehler should regress, the Dodgers are well positioned in his starts as Buehler is averaging more than 6 1/3 innings per start. In a league where the typical starting pitcher is only pitching for slightly more than five innings, Buehler’s stamina and consistency is an asset.
Opposing Buehler is Kevin Gausman who is having a career year. For his career, Gausman has a respectable 4.01 ERA. This season, Gausman has an 8-1 record with a 1.49 ERA, and is averaging more than 6 1/3 innings per start. However, Gausman also has a 3.05 xFIP which is twice his ERA. Against a strong Dodgers lineup, Gausman should have a tougher time than usual on Tuesday night.
The Los Angeles Dodgers should win on Tuesday night against the Giants, and they have been appropriately set as -145 favorites. With neither team being a good betting option, there is value in betting on the over for Tuesday’s game.
Combined both teams average 9.97 runs per game which is almost three full runs higher than the run total. While there will be less scoring than usual because of the pitching matchup, it is hard to imagine a game between both teams where fewer than seven runs are score. In a full nine-inning game, it is rare for a run total to be set at only seven runs.
While the total opened at 7.5 runs, it is worth the extra juice to get the over at seven runs at -115 on BetMGM. The game could end in a 5-2 or 3-4 score for a push or go over for a win. Betting on six or fewer runs score between Cody Bellinger, Max Muncy, and Buster Posey is unrealistic, that is why I like the over.
MLB Pick: Over 7 Runs -115 (BetMGM)